When America sneezes, the world catches the cold. The Coronavirus has made Americans sneeze and the rest of the world has started catching the chill. With the Wall street crashing, its ripple effect is felt all over the world as it recognized that the Corona virus is no longer a "China only" phenomenon.
The scourge has started spreading its tentacles slowly from America's west coast into the mainland. It seems President Trump has hibernated into a panic mode. It was apparent from his body language when he hastily left a press conference. Trump who has a penchant for avoiding media scrutiny,
left his Vice - President Pence and his Secretaries to handle a probing media.
Coronavirus is a serious Disease, not a Democrat nor one of his staffs who can be fired in Twitter. The deadly virus doesn't have a Twitter account nor it is running in the Democratic primaries whom Trump can easily destroy through name calling and his characteristic character assassination. With nearly 30 people dead, 900 infected and still counting Trump is facing the real and present danger at a micro (organism) level - his first challenge testing his leadership role as the Commander in chief of arguably the most powerful country on earth.
Trump better be worried. Even with a lackluster Democratic field to challenge him, his reelection which was looking all but certain not long ago, doesn't seem to be guaranteed now. Why is that?
Let's take a look at the history of the American Presidential Elections for last 50 years. Most Presidents got a second term (US Constitution has put a 2 term limit on their President since World War II). Only two Presidents, Jimmy Carter and George Bush Senior were denied a second term. The reason - both presided over a bad economy going into their reelection.
Trump is pretty much aware of history. That's exactly why he looks bothered and will do his best to keep the economy afloat until November when Americans head to polls. He will do everything at his disposal, e.g. temporary payroll tax cut, lowering of interest rate (which is low anyway) and paid sick leaves (which is not mandatory in America).
Yet there is no guarantee, that he can stop a recession. Corona virus doesn't listen to the President of the United States. It doesn't distinguish between a Prince or a Pauper. Stock markets don't follow the President's free will, rather by the free market economy.
Both Corona virus and recession are interwined - the former can trigger the later. Recession is the side effect of Capitalism, impacting America in Cycles once every decade. Predicting it is not a layman's forte. Economy is freaky like weather. Like weather prediction, it can go horribly wrong. Even Nobel Laureates are known to fail spectacularly to gauge the economy. Things can go North or South from here. A week is a long time in politics, the month of November is still eons away. Good luck Mr. Trump in tackling the duo of Coronavirus and Economy.
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