The announcement of a well spread out Lok Sabha (Parliamentary) Elections in India today, ranging from April 11 till May 19 certainly favors the ruling party BJP. Though Elections in India is held in a staggered manner, this one beats all. For example last time the Elections in my home state Odisha for its 21 seats was held in 2 phases, this time it will be held in 4 phases.
Why this staggered elections spreadout into multiple phases will favor BJP ? Just do your math. Simply look at the pattern. In Andhra Pradesh where BJP is not expecting much, Elections for 25 seats will be held on the same day. Similarly Elections for Tamil Nadu (39) and Kerala (20) will be held on one day. No prize for guessing that BJP is a fringe player in the above Southern states where its total seats tally in all these states is likely to remain in single digit.
At the same time in the states crucial to BJP - UP, Bihar, MP, Bengal and Odisha polls will be held in 4 to 8 seats in every week. It will be easier to micro target these seats by carpet bombing them by the cadre based party led by its Campaigner-in-Chief Narendra Modi.
Though India is a Parliamentary democracy, on many occasions it is run on Presidential style - Indira vs JP (who brought all opposition under a single umbrella of Janata Party) in 1977, Rajiv Gandhi vs V P Singh in 1989 and Modi vs Rest (Rahul Gandhi in Congress ruled states and Regional Satraps like Mamata, Mayawati, Lalu Yadav, Naveen in the states).
Love him or hate him, you can't ignore the fact that Modi has succintly managed to project himself as a leader at the national level. In contrast the opposition lacks coherence and strategy.
Next to him is Rahul Gandhi who chooses to stay forever young and in learning phase who got some catch up to do. Other leaders are at best Regional Sartraps, their fiefdom limited to the border within their own states. The Left Front, a combination of Communist parties has hardly any presence at the national level - already shrunk to it's now solitary base of Kerala.
On the other hand, BJP has used its power and presence at the Center to tweak the Poll Schedule into its favor. So, as of today it's advantage BJP. Elections in India is full of fun, color, fiesta accompanied by violence, loss of life and bitterness amongst individuals with friends turning into foes. So, buckle up your seats and brace for a bumpy ride on the hot, dusty heartlands of India.
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