Monday, February 15, 2016

The Topsy Turvy World of Indo - American relationship

The announcement recent sell of F-16 fighter planes by US to Pakistan has caused consternation in India. A few in media, social or otherwise, have mentioned about Obama backstabbing Modi who embraced him.

It would be futile to judge the fereign policy of a nation which is governed by Strategic or Business interests, in too simplistic terms. Think of this way, let's say, either one of Rwanda and Burundi (who are perpetually at logger heads fighting each other), buy a billion dollar worth arms from India. It could be reported back home as a victory of pragmatic foreign policy, though India has excellent relations with both African nations. As far as hobnobbing with dictators go, India has supported the Myanmar (Burma) military junta for a long time.

Notwithstanding the reported bonhomie between India and US (seen mostly by the media back home, the mainstream American media doesn’t share the same euphoria), Pakistan continues to be strategically important to America, especially vis a vis in relation to its contentious Af-Pak (Afghanistan - Pakistan) policy. Just reverse the way  "Af-Pak" sounds. "Fak-Ap" as it sounds, summarizes the issue as it stands today, so also US policy in that turbulent neighborhood.

Call it an obsession, reality is the big elephant in the room called Pakistan, a factor which it can't easily ignore. Pakistan is America's first love, an old flame which just refuses to extinguish, coming back to haunt like a recurring migraine. That nation is treated by Uncle Sam as an "international con**m" time and again, use it for convenience and conveniently discard it afterwards.

There is no permanent friends or enemies in this world, only permanent interest. Unfortunately strategically for US, India is no Pakistan. NATO convoys don't pass through our territory. We cannot burn 10 NATO convoys and instantly extort $2 billion from America, as Pakistan has mastered the art of "Running with the hare and hunting with Hounds".

Close to two last decades, I have diligently followed many visits by Indian Prime ministers to Coke Land and their counterparts, the American Presidents visit to India (visits of the later to India are fewer, only 4 Presidents have visited India in last two decades). All these visits are followed by reports of bonhomies by the Press  (mostly on Indian side), coming with bomadistic phrases like "breakthroughs", "turning point" and so on. Some even hallucinate America declaring Pakistan as a terrorist state. Call me pessimistic, nothing of that sort is going to happen anytime soon.

A point to be noted, the more charismatic Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who were (are) treated like rock stars back home, like true Democrats were never overtly friendly towards India. Democrats, like the mandarins of American State Department, are in general more Pakistan friendly. The less charismatic and globally much hated George Bush, who smiles less than Clinton and doesn't dance like Obama, was genuinely friendly towards India. Beyond the usual bonhomies and hot airs of rhetorics, he actually did something concerte in the form of the Ino-US Nuclear deal during his regime.

That doesn't mean thar Republicans are extremely India friendly, but they are known to follow a more aggressive foreign policy and are capable of going out of box. Democrat Presidents are known to be more traditional vis a vis Indo-Pak relationship, as the Foggy Bottom  (another name for the State Department) are filled with Paki lovers, a remnant from the Cold War era, not going away anytime soon.

So don't be surprised if Pakistan is doled out more lollipops, yet continuing its double game - as everything is fair in love, war and international relationships, where nothing but self interest matters. Better get used to Realpolitik.

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