The October Surprise

October reminds me of " The October Surprise". It's a political term often used in American elections, which are held on the first Tuesday of November. October is the month of peak campaigning and debates. A surprise like a scam, scandal or a misstep by candidate can create havoc and cost a candidate the election. The most recent one I remember was the Senate campaign in Missouri in 2012. Todd Aiken, the Republican was all set to defeat his Democrat woman opponent, leading her by 5+ points. Early October he came up with his famous "legitimate Rape" comment. It was too silly a statement. Rape is after all rape, a heinous crime, period. It can't be quantified. Backlash, especially from women followed. His lady opponent easily won that seat. 11 years ago, around this time in the year 2004, George Bush and John Kerry were running a neck to neck in the USA Presidential election. Kerry, performed well in his debate and was catching up with Bush (Democrats are better communicators than Republicans, perhaps with the exception of Ronald Reagan). John Kerry was closing in fast, until came the October Surprise on 28th of that month, hardly a week prior to the elections. A video of Osama Bin laden was released. It reminded the Americans of 9/11. During the time of crisis the Americans cling to their leaders and give them a free hand, letting the status quo prevail. (On the aftermath of 9/11, Bush's approval rating went up to a record 91 and no one demanded his resignation). The video gave Bush a 2-3% lead in the polls, enough to romp home for his 2nd term. Please feel to call me a Conspiracy Theorist, but let me connect some dots here. John Kerry spoke virulently against Pakistan's double standard (it's another matter he now cuddles the Pakistani Army Chief, the man who matters). The then Pakistani President Musharaf must have figured out its best in his interest to bet on Bush's 2nd term. So he did his best to get this video made from Bin Laden, who we all know was living in his backyard, all along.