Exactly a week remains before the Election day in America on Tuesday, November 5. Harold Wilson, the British Prime Minister once said that a week is a long time in politics. Anything can happen between now and November 5 to decisively move this race one way or other. The race is still tight, as Comedian Bill Maher said - "the race is tighter than Trump's ass in a federal prison".
A month ago it was looking like Harris has wrapped up this election and sealed the deal, especially after Trump's poor performance in the debate with her. Since then a lot of water has flown under the bridge of Chattahoochee river. The gap between them has considerably narrowed, the momentum now with Donald Trump. If the Election is held tomorrow, Trump is probably winning.
Why this is happening ? What has happened in between for Trump to close the gap and Harris can't close the deal ? Well, Kamala Harris has a messaging problem. If she can come out as genuine and not look like a stereotype politician, she would have a chance. Politicians like Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama were natural communicators. I think it is now a case of too little, too late to build that image. She blew up that post debate advantage she had. It is now her Election to lose. If Trump wins, it will be a blow to the traditional American politics for the following couple of reasons.
1. Previously the Presidential debates matter to swing the election one way or other. In 1980 Reagan came out better against the incumbent Jimmy Carter in the debate which turned the tide for him. In 1992 Bill Clinton turned the table by defeating George Bush senior and comfortably won the Election. Nowadays debates don't matter in an overtly divided country where voters have already made up their mind.
2. The old theory of Republicans being friendly towards the rich, democrats standing for the Working middle class is gone. Now Democrats are perceived as a party of the woke, college educated, privilege class elites. Trumpians (not traditional Republicans) see him as the fighter of non college White Working class. This explains why democrat strongholds, the blue wall of the rust belt of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are shoes signs of cracking. Even many Labor Union members, young male Blacks and Hispanics are leaning Republican.
At the same time Trump, a New York real estate sellsman who is good at making hyperbolic statements has been able to connect to the White non college working class like no politician has. They think Trump is answer to their woes. Whether Trump will REALLY drive all illegal immigrants out of America or bring back jobs to America, your guess is as good as mine.
Interestingly, Democrats have more money this time and are outspending Republicans. They also have a well entrenched system to play the ground game by poking the undecided, independent voters urging them to go and vote. Ground game is very important when results in the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is going to be decided by razor this margin, in a margin of few thousands from a million of votes cast. It's going to be a long night on Tuesday, November 5. But one thing I can predict with certainty - if Kamala Harris wins this, Trump is again going to be her opponent in 2028, as I am sure he will get GOP nomination hands down. So tighten your belts and get ready for a roller coaster ride.
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