UP Elections 2022

 Midterm Assembly elections process is on in 5 states of India. But the apple of  everybody's eye is Uttar Pradesh, better known by its commonly used acronym UP. It is the largest state in India with a population of 250 million which sends 80 Members of Parliament making it politically important for all political parties. The state would be the 4th most populous country in the world by itself, slightly less than the population of United States (I am sure when the next Assembly election is held in the state, it would have surpassed the population of USA). Politically speaking, what UP thinks today India thinks tomorrow.

It's a pretty big state. I remember it used to take me almost 20 hours to cover the entire state when I used to travel to Delhi in the 1990s by train from Bhubaneswar. It would enter UP in Mogalsarai junction where we would snack on KHARBHUJA (cantaloupe chunks) and have dessert with PETHA (a sweet meat made from gourd) in Agra after nearly a day. It was pleasure to watch the view of the vast, green gangetic plains of UP from the train meandering through the fertile flora filled with paddy, sugarcane and myriads of vegetables planted on endless fields on both sides of the railway track.

In that context, it is important to throw some light on the ongoing elections in the state of UP. Opinion polls point to a close contest between BJP and SP. Mayawati's BSP and Congress party being marginal players, especially the later, the grand old national party of the Gandhis is virtually doomed. The results are still uncertain, though BJP seems to have an edge. As complex casteism and communalism is the leitmotif of cowbelt politics, it is a nightmare for any Psephologist worth his salt to correctly predict the outcome. Yet one outcome is certain - Samajwadi Party is going to at least double or even treble its tally from the last election. But the upper castes, especially the Brahmins seem to rally behind the BJP. Though they form only 15% of the electorates, Brahmins are influencial is shaping the outcome, especially in the Eastern UP where the election will be held in its last phase.

Nowhere the Brahmins wield more influence than the Temple city of Varanasi (also referred by its Anglicized name Benarus). It shares a lot of culture and customs with its cousin, the temple township of Puri in Odisha. Folks from both Puri and Varanasi have a passion for KUSTI (Wrestling) and BHANG (cannabis). Apart from being famous for Lord Jagannath and Lord Shiva temples, both contain huge cremation grounds, SWARGADWAR (The Gateway to heaven) of Puri by the sea and huge burning pyres on the MANIKARNIKA GHAAT (bank) of Ganga in Varanasi. And it doesn't end there. It is said that my ancestors, especially those Brahmins from Puri and its vicinity came from Kannauj, Uttar Pradesh.

Reminds me of this funny episode once narrated by a friend, a guy well connected to the family of Kamalapati Tripathy, erstwhile Congress MP and central Cabinet Minister during Indira Gandhi's time, who hailed from an influential Brahmin family from Varanasi.

During a cabinet meeting, the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi once asked Kamalapati Tripathy, her Railway Minister - "Tripathy Jee, Babu Jagjivan  Ram (his minister colleauge from CHAMAAR or Cobbler caste) complains that you don't eat your meal sitting next to him." "Madam, I don't even eat sitting next to you, forget about him", came the prompt response from K.P. Tripathy. 

Indira Gandhi, though born Brahmin, lost her Hindu status after her marriage to Feroz Gandhi, for which she was never allowed inside the Puri Jagannath temple. Kamalapati Tripathy, a Brahmin from Benarus wasn't exactly expected to break breads with someone from the Scheduled caste community, not at least in that generation.

It has to be seen how Varanasi, a prestigious seat who flipped its MP to PM of the nation shapes the electoral map of the state in absence of the Modi wave which swept UP in 2017. No one expects such a repeat and I have a hunch the next phase will not only determine the ruler of Lucknow, also shape the politics in 2024.

Though this is an Assembly election where folks vote on local rather than national issues, BJP's campaign solely hinges on Modi and the current CM Yogi's popularity. Modi's campaign is bit subdued which could be deliberate, as he doesn't want any leader to rise in the politically vital state of UP - who can be a potential future power center and threat to him. 

In modern day politics a leader can have more enemies in his or her own party than outside. Modi, a wily politician, who has outfoxed his old, faddist and obscurantist rivals has exactly trodden the same path. He knowns very well, how many from his own party bigwigs dreading competition from regional satraps had always kept him on the sidelines, until the party was left without options.

Also, Modi being the one man campaign army has taken the risk of over exposure. BJP's strategy of taking risk in going for the kill solely with Modi may turn out to be an overkill. But no gain has ever come without risk taking and the PM from Gujarat is known to be a calculating risk taker. Come March, the day of reckoning and counting, we will find it after the votes in UP are counted.