The current crisis in Ukrain

 Russia is threatening to attack Ukraine. Rather Putin is threatening to do so, because in communist, autocratic Russia the dictator has his last word. We can say Putin is Russia and Russia is Putin, as dictator ruled states have no checks and balances as you would expect in a democracy.

Now question is why Putin is doing all these ? It could be due to two reasons. First being an ex head of KGB, the ubiquitous secret service of Soviet Union from the Cold War era he harbors grudge against West and NATO, especially the United States for breaking the erstwhile USSR and encroaching into its territory. He wants to bring back the old glory by gobbling up Ukraine and drive his point by preventing it from jumping into NATO's arms.

Secondly, USA the global superpower is perceived being week due its internal squabbling has led Americans being seen as a divided nation losing control over their global grip. Election of a nincompoomp like Trump as its President, the last year's incident of January 6 in the Capitol Hills and Afghanistan withdrawal fiasco hasn't helped America's image.

Western Europe, is seen more as a liability to NATO than asset. Germany, the strongest economy in Europe is weakest amongst the Western Europe nations as far as dealing with Russia goes. It is because its dependency on the later on its natural gas supply to keep Germany warm in winter. 

China in the meantime has cut a deal with Russia but they are shrewd enough not to openly back Russia as a full pronged war is not at China's interest when the Middle Kingdom's economy is not doing so well. Further hike in gas prices will hurt China, an energy hungry country heavily dependent on its oil imports to run its manufacturing engine.

In the meantime a lot of negotiations are being carried out in both foreground and background. Putin and Biden spoke yesterday for an hour. The President of Germany is meeting Putin after visiting the Ukrainian President. The French President Macron is deeply involved in talks with Russia. 

Realpolitik is a different ballgame. It should not be viewed in a simplistic way like a discussion at PANA, CHA DOKAN GULLI KHATTI (Light hearted chats a Gully joints like betel shop or tea stalls). Foreign policy negotiations aren't done openly on media - certainly not on the social media. Lot of deal making is done in the background which we don't know or probably will never know.

Most of world's biggest banks and other financial institutions are in the United States, Canada and Western Europe. International trading including that of crude oil is still carried out in US Dollars. If Putin attacks Ukraine the crippling sanctions which would follow can hurt Russia's fledgling economy pretty bad. Russia ain't China. It doesn't have economic muscles to flex. As Bill Clinton coined his famous campaign slogan - "It's economy stupid", power doesn't come from the barrel of the gun these days, rather from a country's economic might.

Putin may be aggressive, but he isn't suicidal. He has already withdrawn part of Russian military from Ukraine border as a gesture indicating he is open to negotiation. Hope he sees some logic and stops his misadventure. It will be good for him, it will be better for the rest of the world.