BJP in Odisha is too fragmented, unfocused and lacks proper leadership or agenda to challenge the hegemony of the currently well ensconced Naveen Patnaik led BJD government. The status quo is likely to continue for at least a decade, unless something drastic happens on the political front.
So BJP needs a game changer and change in its strategy as far as Odisha goes. They have to think something out of box. If I were their think thank, I would suggest them to take the cause of a separate state of KOSHALA consisting of districts in Western Odisha.
Here are the 5 reasons why it is likely to succeed, yielding some much needed Lok Sabha seats. If a state of KOSHALA is eventually formed, a guaranteed Assembly victory in the newly formed state for BJP.
1. A separate state consisting of Weststern districts of Odisha is a very emotive issue and will put the BJD's local leaders and their leadership in Bhubaneswar in a spot. They will be confused like a fox caught in flashlight pondering how to react and handle an emotive issue.
2. BJP has a strong base in Western part of Odisha unlike the coastal areas where they are barely a force. So they have nothing to lose, as majority of coastal Odisha folks don't vote for the saffron party anyway.
3. Whatever little population of Muslims, the biggest minorities of the state are there, they are mostly concentrated in coastal Odisha in the districts of Bhadrak, Kendrapada and Jajpur. They will never vote for BJP with or without demand of Koshala state.
4. This is not unprecedented in the history of India as states like Jharkhand, Uttarakhand and Chattisgarh have been carved out of larger states. Quite recently Andhra Pradesh has been bifurcated into Telengana and Seemandhra.
5. Nothing wrong if this happens as smaller states are better to govern. I am no fan of Mayawati, but her suggestion of splitting the state of UP into Harith Pradesh (Western part), Awadh (central UP), Bundelkhand (South UP adjacent to MP) and Purvachal (Eastern UP) needs some introspection.
So with Parliament election about an year away from now, it is time for BJP Central leadership to give it a serious thought. Otherwise, making a serious dent into BJD's citadel of Odisha will be a pipedream.
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