Monday, December 18, 2017

Why Modi won Gujarat 2017

Yes, Modi won Gujarat, not BJP. We are a parliamentary democracy in the name only - in reality our Elections are fought Presidential style. This is not something new. A la during the heydays of Indira Gandhi, there is no one now who is close to Narendra Modi in caliber and charisma.

First and foremost, Love it, or hate it -BJP is a cadre based party which is professionally managed, having members withinsatiable hunger for win, often by hook or crook. BJP started with back foot, with 20 plus years of incumbency and GST mess up hanging like albatross across its neck. But still it managed to win, albeit by a reduced margin. It's winner take all world in politics. The 2nd place party, however less may be its margin of loss, does not get to rule, rather seats in the opposition. BJP has taken a cue from the erstwhile Congress and mastered the art of winning.

On the other hand, Congress as a party still lives in 1980s. It talks of democracy but its leaders are coronated - a son following the mother at the highest level (Yes, so far it's the trend, son following a mother - Rajeev followed Indira, Rahul followed Sonia). Without infusion of fresh ideas, narratives, imagination and new blood, rot has sipped into the party which can't forever run by a person who thinks a superior king is destined to rule over inferior subjects.

Hindus constitute 85% of India's population but are divided along the lines of multiple castes and sub castes. BJP's strength is consolidation of the Hindu votes, the more it unites them, the better it performs. It' played to its strength, doing that. Congress's strength is minority votes, especially in states where they form a credible opposition to BJP. The more it can pull chunks of castes from the Hindu vote bank, it's better.

BJP as expected played to its strength, Congress did not. Rahul Gandhi's cardinal mistake was to play soft Hindutva card. One should play to one's own strengths, not opponent's. Do you think Modi wear a scull cap or visit Mosques and Churches will drive minorities in droves to vote for him ?

BJP was smart to grab Mani Aiyar's foot and mouth disease or any thing it could hang on to make the Congress party and Congressmen look nincompoop. All said and done - Gujarat
is a highly charged state in communal matters. The post Godhra riots in 2002 was a major one, but certainly not the first one. There were many riots before, especially one I remember from 1985 which happened after Rath Yatra (Car Festival) in Ahmedabad.

The then Congress government at both center and the state dilly dallied, hardly did anything to control it. In this context the spectre of Mian Ahmed Patel taking over Gujarat was the last thing for the voters wanted, tilting the decisive votes to the saffron party. BJP filled in the gap as the party which cares for Hindus above castes. Politics is matter of perception and BJP was able to connect this to the voters with its narrative, however flawed it may be.

Rahul Gandhi's cardinal mistake was to play soft Hindutva. One should play to one's own strengths, not opponent's. Don't think Modi wearing a scull cap or visiting Mosques and Churches will drive minorities in droves to vote for him.

A lesson for BJP and Modi -  It should shed off its complacency and keep working harder. For, a week is a long time in politics, a year and half to the 2019 Parliament election is eons away.



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