Monday, April 3, 2017

Trump says US might act unilaterally against North Korea

Trump has upped the ante against North Korea by threatening to go alone if necessary against the increasing the belligerent, reclusive Northern Hermit Kingdom. The time is important - as the leaders of the two most powerful nations on earth, i.e. US and China are going to meet this weekend when Trump hosts Xi Xingping at the Presidential retreat of Mar-A-Lago in Florida.

North Korea's Kim Jung Un might be a megalomaniac crazy despot, but he is far from suicidal. In fact, for some one who cherishes good things of life - expensive Swiss Cheese, a new bottle of wine costing $1000 and a new girl every day. It is hard to imagine such a person contemplating suicide anytime soon - especially post consolidating power after taking out his potential rivals, including the recent assassination of his half brother in Kuala Lumpur airport.

Then why this porky, overweight young leader is creating one nuisance after another ? It's the same age old tactics of firing a missile or conducting a crude nuclear test as a bargaining chip for extorting more western aid to sustain its elites - a classic blackmailing tactics. This has been going on since time immemorial. But the fact remains that history bears the testimony of Chamberlain kind of appeasement policy failing miserably (the ex British Prime minister whose policy of appeasement failed miserably to defeat Hitler and Nazism), time for further appeasement is now passe.

But Trump's administration is talking tough this time, keeping up to its promise made to the electorates not to let any one take US for granted any more. And the Chinese President arriving on US soil on in a few days, the timing can't be more appropriate.

The key is in the hands of China. It is the lifeline of sustenance to its Southern Neighbor, providing 90% of the later's energy needs. So far he has used North Korea to checkmate its regional rivals South Korea and Japan. But the cat is already out of the bag, with the North Korean dictator's unpredictability is causing more and more headache to the Middle Kingdom - the last thing it wants is a refusee problem at his border.

So China has a dilemma - damn if it acts tough against North Korea, damn if it doesn't. In that context, the much self touted deal making skill of Trump will be tested against the pragmatic Chinese, known to hardly bend their back while diligently pursuing their national interest, making them harder nut to crack. An interesting diplomatic weekend ahead.

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