The election in India's state of Uttar Pradesh, popularly known by its acronym UP is entering its final phase. Politically important, with a population of nearly 300 millions it would be the 4th most populous country in the world by itself, slightly less than the population of United States (I am sure when the next Assembly election is held in the state, it would have surpassed USA population).
The results are still uncertain. As complex Castism and Communalism is the leitmotif of cowbelt politics, it is a nightmare for any Psephologist worth his salt to correctly predict the outcome. Of late, there seems to be a slight uptick in the fortune of BJP, as the Upper castes, especially the Brahmins seem to rally behind the party. Though only 15% of the electorates, Brahmins are influencial is shaping the outcome, especially in Eastern UP where the election will be held in its last phase.
No where the Brahmins wield more influence, than the Temple city of Varanasi (also referred by its Anglicized name Benarus). It shares a lot of culture and customs with its cousin, the temple township of Puri, Odisha. Folks from both Puri and Varanasi have a passion for KUSTI (Wrestling) and BHANG (cannabis). Both contain huge cremation grounds, SWARGADWAR (Gateway to heaven) of Puri by the sea and huge burning pyres on the GHAATs (banks) of Ganga in Varanasi.
Reminds me of this funny episode narrated by a friend of mine from this city from Easten UP, a guy well connected to the family of Kamalapati Tripathy, erstwhile Congress MP and central cabinet minister during Indira Gandhi's time, who hailed from an influential Brahmin family from Benarus.
During a cabinet meeting, Indira Gandhi once asked Kamalapati, then Railway Minister, "Tripathy jee,
Indira Gandhi, a born Brahmin, lost her Hindu status after her marriage to Feroz Gandhi, for which she was never allowed inside the Puri Jagannath temple. Kamalapati Tripathy, a Brahmin from Benarus two generation ago, wasn't exactly expected to break breads with someone from Scheduled caste.
It has to be seen how Benarus, a prestigious seat who flipped its MP to PM of the nation, shapes the electoral map of the state in absence of the Modi wave which swept Eastern UP in 2014. No one expects a repeat and I have a hunch the next phase will determine the ruler of Lucknow.
Though this is an Assembly election where folks vote on local rather than national issues, BJP's campaign solely hinges on Modi. It might be deliberate, as he doesn't want any national leader of stature to rise in the politically vital state of UP - who can be a potential future power center and threat to him.
Modi, a wily politician, who has outboxed his old, faddist and obscurantist rivals, has exactly trodden the same path. He knowns very well, how many from his own party bigwigs dreading competition from regional satraps, had always kept him on the sidelines, until the party was left without options.
Also, Modi being the one man campaign army has taken the risk of over exposure. BJP's strategy of taking risk in going for the kill solely with Modi may turn out to be an overkill. But no gain has ever come without risk taking and our PM from Gujarat is known to be a calculating risk taker. Come March the 11th, the day of reckoning and counting, we will find it.
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