Trump as president is not going to dump Pakistan

It seems many folks back in India are upset with the likely defeat of Trump in the upcoming Presidential election. The reason - in their prism of view, they have construed Trump's anti Muslim rants as his his intention to punish Pakistan, a perennial thorn in the flesh of India.

I am no fan of Hillary. I didn't vote for her twice, both in 2008 and 2016 primaries. But I am sorry, even if Trump makes an unlikely comeback and wins the elections, he will hardly do anything close to satisfy the wish of many back home. Chances are that he could further molly coddle Pakistan at a time US is getting out of Afghanistan.

To all the knowledgeable and not so knowledgeable ones about America - Uncle Sam diligently follows a purely self interest driven foreign policy, principles be damned, whether we like it not. Historically they preach democracy but have no qualms about dealing with sundry dictators from Shah, Marcos, Zia, Musharaf et all.

Post Nuclear deal with Iran, US has signed a $25 Billion Boeing deal with its perennial bette noire. It's the best recent example hoe Uncle Sam is ready to break bread with someone its declared terrorist state for preservation of its self interest.

The other erroneous perception is Republican Presidents are more friendly towards India and less towards Pakistan here is some statistics to chew on :

1. Dwight Eisenhower totally embraced Pakistan at the cost of India.
2. Richard Nixon sent 7th fleet to India during 1971 war and referred to Indira Gandhi as that bi**ch.
3. Ronald Reagan armed Zia's Pakistan to teeth caring a damn about India.
4. George Bush Sr hardly cared about India. His son preferred Musharaf after 9/11, though India offered blank check of help to US.
All the above are Republicans.

So, I have no reason to believe that Trump will be anything different from his predecessors. Business wise India is not China, Japan or EU. Neither strategically it is Syria, Middle East, North Korea or Afghanistan, especially the later where US acknowledges Pakistan being a central factor. Hence don't presume an cataclysmic shift in American position as far as Indo-Pak relationship goes.

Trump is toast with this October surprise

"When you are a Star you can grope women. You can do anything, Grab them by the pu**y. You can do anything" - says Trump in a tape just released by Washington Post (the same newspaper which exposed Watergate Scandal). It comes as a classic October surprise, at the peak of US Presidential campaign, exactly a month before the election.

Trump now dismisses it as locker room banter. But skeletons from locker room cupboards has come back to haunt him, more devastating than the Hurricane Matthew currently pounding south east coast of America.

Most men are known to do some trash talking about women, often exaggerating and boasting about their machismo. But this is not just an isolated braggadocio by Trump in the company his College mates.
It is one his several comments disparaging women as 'fat pigs,' 'dogs,' 'slobs,' and 'disgusting animals'. He once told a contestant on Celebrity Apprentice - it would be a pretty picture to see her on her knees.

Does that sound like the temperament of a man to be the president of United States of America, arguably the most powerful position on surface of earth ? Politics is a matter of perception and this image of Trump being obnoxiously disrespectful towards women is going to cost him the Presidency.

Sorry Republicans - your candidate is now toast and it will need a miracle to recover from this point. The party which nominated the likes of Abe Lincoln to Ronald Reagan deserved much better. Hillary can now chose the drapery of White House curtains and her cabinet.

Lincoln - Douglas debate of 1860

The American Presidential debates can be traced back to more than 150 years ago, to 1860 where Abraham Lincoln of Republican party had his debate with his Democrat opponent Douglas.

The famous verbal duel, also known as Lincoln - Douglas debate was mostly about slavery. Douglas unequivocally supported slavery and famously proclaimed during the debate - I don't consider a negro as my equal.

The audience came to the conclusion that Douglas won the debate. Those days there sans Radio or Television. But by the help of Telegraph and Train, the best available modes of communication in air and ground, the news spread fast. Soon Newspapers declared Douglas as the victor in the debate.

But the strapping 6 feeter and still clean shaven Abraham Lincoln had the last laugh as he went on winning the Presidential election of 1960, witb 59% if the votes.

No sooner than he took as the President of United States, 7 States in the South announced to secede from the Union, laying foundation for the Civil War (1861-65).

Rest we know is history. Ironically the Republican Party, the party of Abe Lincoln who fought against Slavery is represented now by a political buffoon and bigot named Donald Trump. The Democratic party, who supported slavery then is backed now by 90% of Blacks and most of the rest of the minorities.

Kejriwal - A hope belied

This man Arvind Kejriwal - love him or hate him, can't ignore him for his penchant for staying in the limelight. Like a moth to fire, come a crisis, he jumps right into it, attracting enough attention to be newsworty in this era of 24x7 New cycle.

He is a smart politicians who understands the nation's pulse, and understands that to be lucky, one needs to be at the right place at the right time. So he manufacturers or manipulates news for himself. On the other hand, we the people, knowingly or inadvertently contribute to his ambition by readily falling for his antics.

An IITian who qualified for Civil Services (I am sure he joined with a vested interest, certainly not a burning patriotic desire to serve the nation, the usual tall lines from Civil Service aspirants).

AK, popular acronym for Arvind Kejriwal, was smart enough to understand politics where perception matters. Soon he figured out, the best way to commence his political career was sitting next to Anna Hazare, which would enhance his image as a fighter against corruption and catapult him into national limelight.

He also understood that histrionics matter in a cynical nation, explained by the popularity of Bollywood movies (In some South Indian states the thin line between Cinema and Politics has long evaporated). So from the day one he started his NAUTANKI (tantrums), media readily fell for it. It gave him the much sought after attention which he quickly grabbed and media their TRP. Public hankering for a messiah who can bring cataclysmic changes, readily bought it.

He travelled on Delhi Metro to his office during WOH 49 DIN (the number of days of his first short term tenure as CM). He sold himself to the electorates by coughing a bit more than necessary on camera wrapped in his trademark muffler, slept on roadside in January cold and following summer had photo shoots while jumping into Ganga. Though fully assured of his defeat, the diminutive, shewd AK figured out that standing against a resurgent Modi in Varanasi is the best way to capture nation's attention and imagination. He got both in spite of his defeat.

This is Kejriwal's way of story telling, but it tells a lot of story. All he has offered to the Delhites nothing but freebies which may not be sustainable on the long run. Being autocratic, he is now no 1 to no 10 in his party, not allowing any inside debate or disagreement.

His party's manifesto offers nothing new, looks like a carbon copy of old Congress socialist party.  He hobnobs with likes of Laloo and Mulayam, political thief of thieves. And his latest antics, questioning the much discussed "surgical strike". By going against the zingoistic tide, Kejriwal yet vindicates his forte, his innate ability to stay in the news cycle.

By doing so he has taken a calculated risk - as in any profession, there is no gain without risk. But the image of AAP has already taken a hit. The party is no more seen as the alternative one wished for - that's the whole point. It's trump card, his party's projection as a cleaner party with a difference and a long term alternative to mainstream parties has suffered a dent.

To end on a lighter note - as the approaching winter reminds me of his grey sweater and muffer clad attire, my ode to him :

KEJRI RE        KEJRI RE
TERE PYARE PYARE MUFFLER.

Lotus shaped fans

One of the first things I noticed when I entered into my first year in BJB College, Bhubaneswar was the fans on the roof. They were invariably lotus shaped, most probaly untouched by electricity.

The students were creative enough to bend the rules and bend those hapless fans into lotus shaped junks. Not sure what motivated them to channel their creativity to metallic weaving, for the fans were great assets in hot and humid weathers.

If this happened in BJB College, then one of the premium education institute in Odisha during our time, then forget about the rest. Thankfully the weather of Bhubaneswar was salubrious those days. The absence of windows in the classrooms was a blessing in disguise as it provided cross ventilation for the cool breeze then to barge in providing much needed relief.

The wafts of the nature's conditioned air of those days can beat the best of the best Air Conditioning any day, any time. But it was not always the case. I still remember wiping off beads of perspiration from my forehead while writing exams on hot and humid days. In spite of my best effort a drop or two of those always fell on the answer paper no matter what.

When it happened I squeezed my mouth into a pig's snort desperately blowing away my exhaled air to dry off the paper and move on. If drops from the forehead and damage to the answer sheets were minimal, cut those lines and fetch an extra paper of answer sheet to rewrite the lines.

Not sure, if things are better or worst these days. I studied only for couple of years in that college before moving on to REC (now NIT) Rourkeka, where we had electricity, fans had access to them and students were no fans of BJP's election symbol (Lotus). Yet those were the days. ZINDAGI NAA MILEGA DOBAARA (Life will never come again).

Sermoning religious edicts inside a Mall

The fallacy of pacifism is aptly described by this episode from our Ancient short story anthology named PANCHATANTRA (The Five Treatise) credited to Vishnu Sharma.

A bird tries to teach compassion and nonviolence to a recalcitrant monkey. It had no effect on the simian. No sooner than the bird reached its vicinity, the defiant monkey grabbed the bird and killed it.

The moral of the story - teach morality to someone who can take it. Endeavoring to do the same to rascals is not only futile, can backfire big time.

Glad India realized late that sermons, friendly visits by leaders to Pakistan was not only meaningless, it also backfired, making our western neighbor more belligerent towards us. Soon it returned in kind by launching some spectacular attacks on our soil. One learns from mistakes. For us, it's always better to be late than never.

History stands testimony to myriads such events. Mahatma Gandhi, whose birthday is incidentally today, wrote a letter to Adolf Hitler of Nazi Germany on the eve of World War II. He tried to dissuade the pugnacious Fuhrer from attacking. Hitler hardly heeded to the  protagonist of non violence and went on blitzkrieg through the continent of Europe.

Can't finish my blog without mentioning a related, classic Odia proverb HATA MAJHIRE BRAHMA GYANA - "Sermoning religious edicts inside the Mall". Another example of teaching right things at wrong place can boomerang.

A few of my idealist friends in my Engineering College formed a group called BAPUJI PATHA CHAKRA (Gandhian Study Circle), espousing vegetarianism, zero alcoholic drinks and no "LINE MAARING" (Girl chasing) in Sectors of Rourkela. Don't know how many joined, as those principles were complete anathema to the mainstream Engineering College students.

The idea was either stillborn or ludicrous enough to attract more than half a dozen followers. Never heard about this Gandhian endeavor ever getting a foothold on this arguably one of the top notch Engineering Colleges in Eastern India.

On the other hand, it prevented those internally seeking good things in life from experimenting them. They didn't want to be ridiculed as "Smoking Gandhis" or "Khadi clad Girl chasing Gandhis".

No sooner than they came out of institute, many started their own Gandhian "Experiments with Truths". Not sure if the Bapuji Study Circle survived the Sands of time in the tumultuous milieu of technical life.

Not too much should be seen into Pakistan - Russia military activity

I am reminded of a funny story from my home state. A starving jackal was lying on a large field, craving for food. He saw a Bull, happily grazing with it's huge ba**ls swinging like a low hanging fruit from its behind.

 

The hungry jackal wouldn't dare attack the Bull, as the giant bovines reaction can be unpredictable. Watching his forbidden fruit swinging vigorously like pendulum from behind, the Jackal thought its fall is imminent and patiently waited for his meal.

Soon it became noon, evening, followed by twilight. No sign of the Bull's ba**ls  falling off ! The mountain sized bovine moved away after finishing his meal. The frustrated jackal died from starvation.

 

The moral of this story in Odia :

"ANAAI ANAAI GALANI BELA
SANDHA PE**A LAGI MALA SIALA".

 

Roughly transliterated...

"Waiting for the Bull's Ba*ls to Fall,
The Jackal Dies After All."

 

May be inside my lifetime, unlike this ill fated Jackal, I will see a strong, assertive India. Great expectation, but certainly not out of bounds.

 

A Nation or a Person, whose vision goes above and beyond the next quarter into the next quarter of century, succeeds in its mission. USA, Russia, China, Israel fall into that category. Remember, it took Americans nearly a decade to eliminate Bin Laden and Russians 9 years to punish Zia Ul Haq (rumor has been KGB planted a device in his plane to kill him). It took over a decade for Mossad to track down and spectacularly eliminate all the perpetrators of Black September terrorist group who massacred Israeli athletes in 1972, Munich Olympics.

 

Yet a sizable chunk of our establishment are still stuck in Cold War era, having the notion that Russia is our friend, trusted ally etc. No one is a permanent friend or enemy in this murky world of realpolitik, where permanent self interest rules the roost. So not Russia, America or anyone else in our friend, neither enemy too.

 

Russia was using India as its pawn and vassal state during Cold war. Pakistan, forever ready as a vassal state for any bigger power, doing joint exercise with Russia shouldn't come as surprise - as Pakistan's body and soul is perennially  up for grab for a price.

 

I recently read an interview with Vyacheslav Trubnikov, now SVR chief  (Russian secret service post Soviet) from 1996-2000 given to an American journalist. He was born in Siberia and joined KGB in 1967.

 

Immediately he was sent to Calcutta, India under cover as a reporter. He said - "Every journalist in Calcutta those days was considered a spy". A KGB spy in India, in the middle of Commie paradise called Calcutta at the height of Cold War, was certainly not there to do social service with Mother Teresa.

 

Hence, we are unnecessary seeing too much into these short term Military exercise between nations. US, China, Russia play long term games. Global equations change with time. Yesterday US Congress approved an Iranian multi Billion $ deal with Boeing to buy 80 Aircrafts. Obama's Iran deal is starting to yield benefits.

 

America knows well that Pakistan is China's concubine, more than their b**ch. So good relationship with Iran will give Uncle Sam access to Afghanistan through Iranian ports, making him not too depend on NATO convoys to pass through Pakistan. Iran would checkmate the Saudis and America acknowledges Iran's growing influence over Iraq.

 

India, at least from the surface, appears to be playing long term for a change, while our analysts are behaving like 5th grade primary school students, discussing Russia - Pakistan joint exercise as the end of world for India.

 

In that context, like this Hungry Jackal I am still waiting. Remember, I K Gujral withdrew RAW support networks from Pakistan, making us scratch our head and now starting our security from scratch. The present government has some catch up to do and I need to wait for that happen during my lifetime.