Anupam Kher playing the role of Dr. Dang from the movie KARMA in late 1980s after receiving a tight slap from actor Dilip Kumar - "ISS THAPPAD KI GUNJ SUNI TUMNE" (Did you hear the reverberation from this slap) ? I am now reminded of it post the tight slap received by BJP after the party's comprehensive defeat in Karnataka Assembly elections. If I am allowed to extrapolate the signals coming from the voters of the state as they punched the voting machines, it's time for BJP, India's right wing Nationalist party to smell the coffee and wake up.
The electorate of this state in south India are one of the smartest lot. For last 35 years they have been making their government accountable, changing them as and when needed - so that no political party can take them for granted. As crop rotation is known for enhancing the productivity of the soil, changing things and positions brings spice out of life, similarly government rotations and changing power is needed for checks and balances we need in a democracy, as well as to curb the corruption and inefficiency.
The best example - In December 1984 Lok Sabha elections Congress won 24 out of 28 seats. Yet barely couple of months later in the state Assembly elections in March 1985, Karnataka voted decisively for R K Hegde, bringing Janata Party to power in the state. The other states who went to poll voted for Congress as usual replicating the just concluded Lok Sabha polls. However Karnataka decided otherwise going against the tide. They have done this time and again - vote one party for center, for another party in the state.
Does it mean that it is beginning of the end of Modi magic ? Not so fast. Parliament elections at the center is one year away. A week is a long time in politics, a year is eons. Modi is still the undisputed leader at the center, his closest rival Rahul Gandhi isn't even close to him. The influence of other rival leaders are at best territorial in nature. BJP has a presence at national level (except most of South of the Vindhyas) and being in power has money & the powerful machinery at its disposal. It can certainly win at the center, though with a reduced margin due to the anti incumbency factor.
Also BJP's supporters can take solace in that it is just an isolated Assembly election. The result is a judgment on the performance of the local government rather than a verdict on Modi led government at the center. They are true to certain extent. As I mentioned above people often tend to vote differently in the local Assembly and national parliamentary elections.
Examples galore. In late 2018 BJP lost in the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chattishgarh and Rajasthan. But less than 6 months later it swept all these 3 states in the Lok Sabha elections giving the Modi led BJP a comprehensive victory. In the same election in Odisha where both Assembly and Parliament elections took place simultaneously the local party BJD swept the Assembly polls but BJP managed to win a respectable 9 number of Parliament seats from Odisha out of 21. The best example is Bhubaneswar - its Lok Sabha seat went to BJP while all the 7 Assembly segments under Bhubaneswar went to BJP. It was clear that the Odia voters did smart dual voting - voted for Naveen Patnaik for the state and Modi at the center on the same day on same ballot.
Hope BJP learns a lesson from this defeat and changes its game plans and strategy accordingly. They need to shed their arrogance and focus on governance. The loss of BJP in Karnataka was due to lack of governance and rampant corruption in the state under the BJP administration. The party didn't have a whole lot to write about. People are also getting tired of its divisive politics. But will BJP and Modi Bhakts ever learn a lesson ? Your guess is as good as mine.
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