Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Doklan standoff eases off and lessons from it

The eminent writer Khushwant Singh was once visiting Hong Kong on a journalist assignment. It was close to the heels of the humiliating defeat suffered by India at the hands of the Chinese due to their surprise attack on our Eastern front, in October, 1962.

As he was walking on the street, a man approached him - "SARDARJEE (As Sikhs are addressed in reverence). DESH SE AYE HO (have you come from our country) ? NAAK BHADDA DITTA (you cut our nose - you have shamed us)".

He continued - "CHINIYAAN NE TO TUMHARI BH***ND MAARLI (the Chinese have screwed your bottom). KUKKAD KHAANDE JOGE HO (You are only good at eating chicken - poking at the Punjabis' voracious penchant for chicken. The pun was - you are just chicken eating, good for nothing guys who have forgotten how to fight).

The Sardar of Hong Kong went on - "I used to boast before my Chinese wife about our great martial skills. Now she is poking fun at me". Point taken, the Chinese beat us left and right in that war, catching us totally off guard.

But the situation ain't 1962 anymore, neither India is so off guard to be taken for granted. Nothing lasts forever, so also China's age old policy on territory - "Our's is our. Your's is negotiable" no more holds good. India has progressed in size, both economically and militarily, now possessing Nuclear weapon.

The world has since moved on. Lessons learnt from the American fiasco in Vietnam and Iraq and Russian defeat in Afghanistan - war is no more a desirable option which is become incrementally Pyrrhic costing both sides.

There is an old African Proverb - When two elephants make love or war, it's the grass which suffers. China realized its folly, fully aware that this stand off is getting it nowhere. The longer it stayed put in that no man's highland of Himalays, the worst it's going to get. With a fast approaching Fall, the winter isn't far away. The pragmatic Chinese decided to back out from before Doklam becomes inhospitable, avoiding a further loss of face.

Glad this standoff  between the two Elephants has eased and the grass can breathe easy, at least for the moment. Full marks to India on being proactive without letting its guard down. Here are couple of takeaways from this imbroglio-

1. Don't lose cool when provoked, for provocation can be a trap where an agitated person or a nation can get reactive and prone to make mistakes. India did well not getting into the Chinese well laid trap of relentless provocation and make a mistake.

2. Diplomacy works best when it is done behind the scene away from the media glare - certainly not on the social media. It should always be left to the experts, not to journalists. The background efforts yielded results in a face saver for both, especially for China. President Xi Xingping must have calculated the risk of losing PLA soldiers before the crucial Communist Party Plenary session in November when he is up for reelection.

On the other hand, we must show some maturity by not going overboard raising celebratory slogans like BHARAT MATA KI JAI (Hail Mother India), JAI HIND (Hail India) etc. This is not a victory in a war, rather a diplomatic fix. So trying to make narrow political gains out of it by coating it with populist oratory and patriotic fervor is totally unwarranted.

Ronald Reagan famously said - "Trust, but verify". In case of the inscrutable Chinese it is - "Don't trust and verify". The Chinese are very shrewd and strategize on long term. We must forever be on guard, as we don't know what card they are going to play next. Dragon may not breathe for now, but hold your breath until BRICS meet is over.



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