Saturday, January 18, 2020

US and China - An odd couple

Finally, the two largest economies in the world, US and China had to climb down from a confrontational mode of trading exchanges on their trade war to making compromise by signing a trade deal.

For Trump it works well, as politics is a matter of perception and he is now perceived as being tough on China - his hot air rhetorics not withstanding. It helps Trump in an election year when he can barely risk further escalation as more tariffs on Chinese good will jack up the prices of cheap consumer products flooding the American market, not to mention an unstable middle East and impeachment process at home being flies on the ointment. In the Middle Kingdom, as China is known as, a perpetual Hong Kong headache hogging the headlines it too needs a compromise as at 6% GDP, a big climb down from 32 consecutive years of astounding double digit growth it is heavily dependent on the indefatigable American consumer to sustain and survive.

US and China make an odd couple, ready to get even at each other. Or may not be so odd, conspicuously akin to numerous married couples who don't like each other but stick together simply because of mutual dependency. Otherwise, they know that HUM TO DUBENGE SANAM, LEKIN TUM KO LEKE HI DUBENGE (I will drown, but I will take you down with me). Simply means - we better stick together or perish together.

Both are suspicious, distrustful, frequently spy on each other, and occasionally flirt with paramours. They hold each other's hand and fake smiles for public consumption, fighting in private. Yet end of the day, they stay together to protect their common interest. Like two sides of coin they may not be able to see each other but need to live together. 

Their marriage was arranged by one Richard Nixon in 1973 on the advise of the irrefutable, wily matchmaker Henry Kissinger, known for his out of box maverick foreign policy to checkmate then Soviet Union at the height of Cold War. The husband US obviously had the upper hand then vis a vis a coy, unsure and insecure of herself China, a la a new bride in an arranged marriage.

Lots of water have flown down in rivers Mississippi and Yangtze Kiang. The irritant in the relationship but the reason for them to marry called Soviet Union has long lost it's venomous fang. Now China has an equal if not the larger say in the relationship. America cannot divorce her so easily and diverse his attention to another suitor as she has the custody of its debt like their child. This relationship will sustain as long as the producer-cum-debtor China will be lending in USD to its favorite consumer America to consume its product.

China wants American consumers to buy what it makes, otherwise its export oriented economy will be in serious trouble. It could open the lid of a can of worms which kept closed tightly till date by the Chinese authorities and lead to social unrest in a nation of 1.4 billion people which would be a nightmarish scenario for them to handle.

The smart and foresighted leaders of the Middle Kingdom know it. All bravado not withstanding both US and China cannot do without each other. Chinese products from Toys to Tilapia flood the American market. Even the ubiquitous American Flags visible on 4th of July have "Made in China" tag. 

Huge ocean liners ply goods across the Pacific manufactured in miles long Sanghai EPZ (Export Processing Zone) for the voracious American consumers. It's said that if those shipping liners stop coming to US West Coast for couple of weeks the prices in Wal Mart would double. China has managed to deliver what we call in Odia BEPARI (Business) parlance - SASTA, SUNDAR, MAJBHOOT (cheap, pretty and durable) products. What more a consumer wants from buying prospective.

Reminds me of the SAHUKAR MAHAJAN (traders and money lenders) in villages back home. They lend money to their customers in their village so that the latter can buy their produce. As it's said in Sanskrit RUNAM KRITVA GHRUTAM PIVET" - Borrow money to drink Ghee (clarified butter)", the US - China relationship perfectly describes it, on a larger scale of course. The show must go on. The couple likely to stick together for mutual benefits, their bickering not withstanding.

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