Few days are left before we hit the year 2020. It is going to be the year of American Presidential election. One thing I have decided - that I am NOT going to vote for Donald Trump. Period.
Though I don't want him to be reelected, he has a high chance of winning his reelection. A week is a long time in politics. November 2020 is eons away. Lot of things can happen in between - for better or worse. Barring a recession in the American economy, Unfortunately for detractors like me, he is likely to get a second term. Here is why.
If you look at all Presidential Elections in history since the World War II when the term of an American President was reduced to only two terms - only two Presidents lost their reelection bid. They're Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George Bush Senior in 1992. Both went to their reelection presiding over an economy in Recession and lost.
A bad economy doesn't necessarily mean that Trump will be defeated, unless the Democrats present a better, viable alternative. So far, the Democratic candidates look listless. Joe Biden, the most likely Democrat nominee reminds the Americans of same old, same old establishment guy - an Washington insider. A new face like Obama with a driving message connecting to audience is much needed, but absence.
The American Primaries are starting in January. First in Iowa, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida. I have a feeling Joe Biden will eventually get the nomination. Hope against all odds he manages to defeat Trump and pushes him into the dustbin of history as the 3rd sitting President in American history since the Second World War not to get a Second term.
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