BJP has made some electoral gains in a few states from North East India which went recently to the polls. The prominent one being Tripura, where the saffron party managed to dislodge their bete noire, the Communists.
I see lot of premature celebration on the media, social or otherwise by the BJP supporters as if they have won the 2019 elections hands down. Expecting BJP to win the Parliamentary elections scheduled a year from now is both premature and preposterous.
These 3 North Eastern states contribute 10 odd Lok Sabha seats. Judging by BJP's performance in those states where it barely scraped through, far from making any clean sweep - I give it 6 out of 10 seats in national polls from these states around the chicken neck of Eastern India map.
Please allow me to make some non-Nostradumusq predictions for 2019 polls, a strictly non partisan prospective based from a citizen's psephologist point of view. It's not how you and me want to vote, it's how Indians In general across the nation vote where political milieu varies a lot from state to state, even from neighbor to neighbor.
For example - Odisha is the forte of a regional party called BJD, whereas in its neighboring state of Chattisgarh the national parties BJP and Congress rule the roost. Though BJP has made inroads in North East, Bengal and Odisha are the ones it has hardly been able to make any noticeable headways due to its nincompoop and often corrupt local leaders.
Read my lips, we can come back to this post a year from now - under present circumstances BJP on its own will get around 230 seats in the next election. It will need allies like JD (U), Siv Sena, Telugu Desam, TRS and the A to Zs of DMKs of Tamil Nadu. In fact Tamil Nadu with 40 odd seats could be in the next king maker.
The tail winds for BJP has been felt in Rajasthan where Basundhara Raje has screwed up BJP's chances beyond redemption. The party's MPs like Hema Malini are performing poorly in UP. Adityanath is its only solace with his aggressive brand of politics, yet it will be difficult for it to repeat 73 seats out of 80 seats a la last time.
In last election BJP made clean sweeps in the states Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal, Delhi, Uttarakhand. It did well in Maharashtra, MP and Chattisgarh. But it will make some losses in those states which in a nutshell would look like below.
States Net Loss
------------ -------------
UP/Uttarakhand/HP 20
Rajasthan 15
Gujarat 5
Maharashtra 10
MP. 10
Chattisgarh. 5
Haryana/Delhi 5
Jharkhand 5
Andhra/Karnataka 5
------------------- -----
Total 80
It will be hardly upset by its performance in Bengal and Odisha, where the spinster and bachelor duo of Mamata and Naveen are pretty well entrenched, especially the nutty Mamata has proven to be a hard nut to crack.
States Net Gain
------------ -------------
Bengal 5
Odisha 5
North East 20
----------------- -------
Total 30
Current tally in 2014 = 280
Net loss = 80 - 30 = 50
-----------------------------------
2019 seats = 280 - 30 = 230 (Give and take 10-15 seats)
In BJP and JDU is all set to repeat its performance. But Maharashtra with 48 seats is going to be very crucial. Siv Sena may now be a toothless tiger, but has its pockets of influence. Without its vital vote share support it may not win 44 out of 48 as it won last time in alliance with Siv Sena. Alone, BJP getting 44 in Maharashtra is long shot, it might end up around 25 seats.
So where this gap of 50 seats is going to be made up from ? Allies, right ? This is where the regional parties will come into play and demand their slice of the pie depending on number of seats in their kitty. The non committal parties like BJD from my home state of Odisha will play a major role. I see a point in the regional party's undisputed chief Naveen Patnaik's often repeated quip - " We are equidistant from BJP and Congress".
This is purely my non partisan prospective based on reality, an assessment based on the present political scenario. As I said before - A week is a long time in politics, 2019 is eons away. A good or bad monsoon, some major internal, external event can swing the electoral fortunes like pendulum, for the better or for worse.
I see lot of premature celebration on the media, social or otherwise by the BJP supporters as if they have won the 2019 elections hands down. Expecting BJP to win the Parliamentary elections scheduled a year from now is both premature and preposterous.
These 3 North Eastern states contribute 10 odd Lok Sabha seats. Judging by BJP's performance in those states where it barely scraped through, far from making any clean sweep - I give it 6 out of 10 seats in national polls from these states around the chicken neck of Eastern India map.
Please allow me to make some non-Nostradumusq predictions for 2019 polls, a strictly non partisan prospective based from a citizen's psephologist point of view. It's not how you and me want to vote, it's how Indians In general across the nation vote where political milieu varies a lot from state to state, even from neighbor to neighbor.
For example - Odisha is the forte of a regional party called BJD, whereas in its neighboring state of Chattisgarh the national parties BJP and Congress rule the roost. Though BJP has made inroads in North East, Bengal and Odisha are the ones it has hardly been able to make any noticeable headways due to its nincompoop and often corrupt local leaders.
Read my lips, we can come back to this post a year from now - under present circumstances BJP on its own will get around 230 seats in the next election. It will need allies like JD (U), Siv Sena, Telugu Desam, TRS and the A to Zs of DMKs of Tamil Nadu. In fact Tamil Nadu with 40 odd seats could be in the next king maker.
The tail winds for BJP has been felt in Rajasthan where Basundhara Raje has screwed up BJP's chances beyond redemption. The party's MPs like Hema Malini are performing poorly in UP. Adityanath is its only solace with his aggressive brand of politics, yet it will be difficult for it to repeat 73 seats out of 80 seats a la last time.
In last election BJP made clean sweeps in the states Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal, Delhi, Uttarakhand. It did well in Maharashtra, MP and Chattisgarh. But it will make some losses in those states which in a nutshell would look like below.
States Net Loss
------------ -------------
UP/Uttarakhand/HP 20
Rajasthan 15
Gujarat 5
Maharashtra 10
MP. 10
Chattisgarh. 5
Haryana/Delhi 5
Jharkhand 5
Andhra/Karnataka 5
------------------- -----
Total 80
It will be hardly upset by its performance in Bengal and Odisha, where the spinster and bachelor duo of Mamata and Naveen are pretty well entrenched, especially the nutty Mamata has proven to be a hard nut to crack.
States Net Gain
------------ -------------
Bengal 5
Odisha 5
North East 20
----------------- -------
Total 30
Current tally in 2014 = 280
Net loss = 80 - 30 = 50
-----------------------------------
2019 seats = 280 - 30 = 230 (Give and take 10-15 seats)
In BJP and JDU is all set to repeat its performance. But Maharashtra with 48 seats is going to be very crucial. Siv Sena may now be a toothless tiger, but has its pockets of influence. Without its vital vote share support it may not win 44 out of 48 as it won last time in alliance with Siv Sena. Alone, BJP getting 44 in Maharashtra is long shot, it might end up around 25 seats.
So where this gap of 50 seats is going to be made up from ? Allies, right ? This is where the regional parties will come into play and demand their slice of the pie depending on number of seats in their kitty. The non committal parties like BJD from my home state of Odisha will play a major role. I see a point in the regional party's undisputed chief Naveen Patnaik's often repeated quip - " We are equidistant from BJP and Congress".
This is purely my non partisan prospective based on reality, an assessment based on the present political scenario. As I said before - A week is a long time in politics, 2019 is eons away. A good or bad monsoon, some major internal, external event can swing the electoral fortunes like pendulum, for the better or for worse.
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