Bihar Election results 2025

Bihar's election results have came out. As expected JDU - BJP Alliance came to power. What wasn't expected was the clean sweep made by the alliance, winning no less than 80% of total seats which came as surprise to almost all psephologists and political pundits on media, social or otherwise.

Though this margin of victory is surprising, it's not entirely impossible in India's classic multi party system. A well known political consultant Prashant Kishore who formed his own party and contested Bihar election could pull about 5% of votes, not significant enough to win a single seat, but enough to cause damages to other parties, e.g. RJD-Congress alliance which pulled some 25-30% votes, enough to pull large crowds and road shows. But unfortunately did didn't necessarily translates to vote on the ground.

Indian electoral process is complex. A lot of factors like caste, communal, regional, local come into play during the election process, especially in the caste and communal ridden cowbelt, with their respective majority and minority community vote banks. I noticed this during my short stint in North India in early 1990s when my boss Mr. Sharma jee shamelessly favored me when he came to know that I am a Brahmin. It's another matter he was quite shocked when he came to know that I was a goat and chicken eating Brahmin.

But one major factor the political pundits/consultants ignored is the power of woman voters, the largest, unrecognized minority vote bank. BJP which has mastered the art of winning elections figured this out and it looks like a whole bunch of them fell for the  announcement of Rs.10,000 towards women where as RJD-Congress had hardly anything to offer other than running on an anti - Modi/Nitish platform. A negative campaign against your opponent isn't always enough to take you across finish line. You need to provide a better, tangible alternative. Rich, poor or middle class, a farmer or pauper, it always feels good to see some extra money deposited into your bank accounts, whether it is form of doles or remuneration.

Secondly, a politician named Owaisi from MIM, an Islamic party based in Hyderabad filed candidates several seats in Bihar. Seen as BJP's Trojan Horse, this guy, a self proclaimed protagonist of rights for Muslims in India snatched away some crucial votes from the Muslim community who normally vote against BJP en block. My 2 cents, even a 2% vote swing can make a huge difference. MIM exactly did that by winning only 5 seats, but in that process it took away 2% Muslim votes, cutting into RJD-Congress vote bank and handing JDU-BJP a massive victory. It is rumored that BJP keeps Owaisi's accounts overseas well stacked as a token appreciation for him helping the Hindu nationalist party in the Muslim populated constituencies.

A third factor, a la 14 years of misrule by JB Patnaik led Congress in Odisha set the foundation stone for BJD rule for 24 years, similarly because of long 15 year rule of Laloo, BJP-JDU alliance is still winning. Also let's not forget that compared to the rampant Goondaism, extortion, kidnapping Raj in Bihar during Laloo's regime, Nitish Kumar has provided a cleaner administration compared to those dark days of Bihar to which no one wants to go back. BJP's money and strategy combined with Nitish Kumar's "Susashan Babu" (Good administrator gentleman) image worked like magic for the alliance and no wonder they made a clean sweep.

Just because someone's grandmother was a great politician, there is no guarantee that the grandson or granddaughter would excel in politics. It certainly doesn't work that way. Congress party which ended up with only 6 seats in a state it ruled for years should look for someone else outside the family as game changer. It's time for the Party to wake up and smell the coffee. Otherwise, their brand of being losers is going to continue for a while !