My observation of the current political scenario in India based on my personal interaction of folks in different segments of the milieu.
The Upper caste HINDUS - They are the ultra nationalists and vocal supporters of Modi led BJP. If they were the only ones allowed to vote Modi don't have to campaign.
MUSLIMS and CHRISTIANS - Exacly the opposite of the above. A few used to be okay with Vajpayee's BJP but none - yes none has ever expressed his or her likeness for Modi led BJP, neither in public nor in private. I believe they are patriots as much as any one else and have their own reasons to feel insecure against rising nationalism (mostly fake). I also saw a lot of sense in the reasons for their antipathy toward the current government at the center. Expect them to vote en masse against the Modi led BJP in the next election.
Non Upper Caste HINDUS - They are not a monolithic groups and BJP has got challenges there. If a large chunk of this section (Hindus constitute at least 80% of India's population) support BJP, the party is through the next election. But ever suspicious of their upper caste counterparts, if they stitch up together and vote agsinst BJP the parry is asking for serious trouble.
BABUs (Bureaucrats) - Let me start by repeating my often repeated quip from Amitabh's movie HUM (Us) released in 1991. In a scene Anumam Kher who plays a crook cop, delivers a very meaningful monologue - BAGAWAT MEIN TIN KISAM KE ADDMI HOTE HAIN (There are three kinds of people in a mutiny), ATYACHAARI (the tormentor played by Danny), KRANTIKARI (the mutineer, played by Amitabh), AUR UN DONO KA JHAGDE KA FAIDA UTHATE HUE HAMARA JAISE BYAPARI (Taking advantage of their rivalry are our kind of businessmen).
The Babus perfectly fit to the BYAPARI category. They are the slimiest of all who work with zero accountability (at least politicians are accountable every 5 years). They have allegiance to none but to their political masters who can assure them of a plum posting where money can be minted. As we say in Odia - BARSA JUADA, CHHATA SIADE, they cleverly put their umbrella in the right direction of the rain to stay safe. They have no allegiance and will support any party irrespective of caste, creed, religion or sex as long as it suits their own self interest. A la James Bond 007 who had licence to kill, they have "License to Loot" and will do so for time to come, irrespective of the party in power.
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