The Day I of 50% tariff

 So, the 50% tariff on India went off the blocks starting today. All major markets in the world who were watching this closely went through a major sell off, including the New York Stock exchange. Pressure was mounting on Trump administration to come down to a negotiated settlement with India and reduce the tariff to a manageable level.

Nothing of that sort happened. I just woke from my midsummer daydream, getting up startled. However, something close to my dream happened not long ago, but not with regard to India, but China when Trump announced tariffs against China. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq were on free fall. When China sneezes USA catches the cold, when China farts, the whole world can smell it. Sensex in India has made some major loss today while it was a normal trading day in the Wall Street. It yet vindicates that Mumbai isn't Sanghai, China has already moved 50 years ahead of us. We missed the manufacturing bus in 1978 when China ran with it. Now our "Make in India" move is a classic case of too little, too little. Even if we get closer to China some time in future, our generation won't be there to see it.

Today, the beginning of 50% tariff imposed on Indian exports to America negates a steady and healthy relationship between India and United States built-up over 25 years, going poof in a period of 6 months. It is a classic enacting of the popular Odia Adage - "BAARA BARSA RA TAPASYA SUKHUA PODA RE GALA", transliterated, "Twelve years of penance has been swept away by consuming barbecued dry fish". It simply means, down the time travelled road all the accumulated efforts and perseverance in creating the image of India as a powerful, emerging economy, a vibrant, aspiring middle class, a burgeoning global powerhouse - all stand decimated by a single stroke of multiple events in sequence. Like the story of the monkey on a bamboo pole, we climb one foot on the Indo-US development ladder, only to be brought down by couple of feet - now back to square one.

The relationship between India and USA has been on a steep decline ever since India fought a 4 day, inconclusive war with Pakistan on the aftermath of the heinous, cold blooded killing of tourists in Pahalgam, before agreeing to a ceasefire. It nose dived further with India's attempt to demonstrate its superiority over Pakistan didn't yield the intended result, but backfired with downing of an unclear number of Indian fighter jets in the dog fight. Despite bravado Pakistan had its share of heavy losses, so had no interest in a long protracted fight. It readily took the exit ramp by agreeing to ceasefire and giving the credit to the US. But India didn't do so for two reasons. One, it would have impacted the 56" strongman image of Prime Minister Modi, senting a wrong message to electorates in the upcoming crucial election in the state Bihar. Two, it will internationalize the Kashmir issue which India has succintly avoided for decades.

However, India ended up earning Trump's wrath who wanted to bask in the glory of ending the war and thought India denied him that right. The Chief of Pakistan's all powerful Army, Chief Munir displayed consistency in his strategic outlook and messaging where India spectacularly failed. Not sure how long the bromance between Trump and Munir will last knowing the former's mercurial tantrums, the so called brotherly bonhomie and love between Modi and Trump fantasized by Indian PM's followers didn't last very long. Modi's supporters ever since are behaving like jilted lovers.

For now, the score is Pakistan - 1, India - 0. Pakistan's Army Chief Munir yet vindicated that crass opportunism and pragmatism displayed by grabbing the right moment at the right time with substantive diplomatic engagement works better than hugs, scripted events which are good for optics but yield nothing concrete. Foreign policy isn't done in media glare. If we couldn't see this coming given the fickle nature of Trump, then we have ourselves to blame for miscalculation.

It is reported that in recent past Trump has called Modi 4 times with the later refusing to take the call. Many Modi supporters are elated see this snobbing as the expansion of 56 inch chest of their leader. They should understand this is not a fight over a piece of land between the villages of Kapileswar and Sundarpada in Bhubaneswar, where one village Sarpanch gloats over the rejection of any overture of his counterpart from other. Foreign policy is much complicated and nuanced. It is an extension of one's national interest, done best away from media - social or otherwise.

We did a lot of Puja and Yagna (worship) back home, praying for Trump's victory expecting him to be more friendly towards India. Last April when I was in India our neighborhood "Kirana" (grocery) store owner told me - "TRAWMPAW ASILE AMA DESHA PAI BHALA. Pakistan UPARE BOMA PAKEIBA (Trump is going to be good for our country. He is going to bomb Pakistan). He must be a sad man. As Puja and Yagna didn't work, may be bringing a Tantrik to so some "Jaadu Tona" (black magic) on Trump could change his mind in the future. Foreign policy and international relationships aren't T20 cricket matches, it's a long drawn Test Series where fortune swings like pendulum.