The first of the 3 Presidential debates between the incumbent Donald Trump and his challenger Joe Biden is less than 24 hours away. Though it's the Labor day holiday in the first week of September when Americans usually start paying closer attention to their Presidential politics, it is after the first Presidential debates sets the tone of the campaign before it goes into full swing.
Now with little more than 5 weeks to go before the election on November 3, the first Presidential debate stands at an important crossroad of this election. In many states, including the crucial swing state of Florida, early voting starts as early as 3 weeks before the election. In that context, the campaign interspersed with 3 Presidential debates starting on 29th September in Cleveland, Ohio has its significance.
Why these Presidential debates are so important ? Because for the first time, the two competitors aspiring for the highest office of the United States will be debating Mano-O-Mano, away from teleprompters, when the eyes of entire America will be fixed on them.
Here is the history of US Presidential debates in nutshell, since the first one between JFK and Richard Nixon in the year 1960. It was the first televised debate when for the first time Americans saw a grumpy Richard Nixon with his 5 O'clock shadow (unshaven beard) showing up versus a young, handsome John Kennedy who went on to win the elections. Kennedy's narrow win was attributed to his debate performance.
There was no Presidential debates held until 1976, when Gerald Ford the incumbent who replaced the Watergate tainted Nixon was pitched against his challenger Jimmy Carter. Ford didn't look serious and made a series of gaffes, notably saying Poland was not part of NATO. This was an inexcusable mistake by a sitting President at the height of Cold War.
In 1980, Carter's popularity plummeted due to a bad economy and the Iran hostage crisis. During their debate at the time of the closing statement the great communicator delivered this master stroke - "When you go to vote next Tuesday, ask yourself are you better off now than 4 years before ? If so, you have your choice, he winked turning his head towards Carter. Else here is the choice you have, he told nodding for himself. Reagan didn't directly tell the voters to choose him, rather gave them an option. Carter could never recover from this punch line as this debate was too close to the Election and Reagan won by a landslide.
In 1984 Ronald Reagan at the age of 74 years was running for his second term. During his famous debate with his much younger opponent Walter Mondale was asked a question by the panel "You are rumored to fall asleep during meetings, are you not too old to run for the office of President of US?" Reagan, the master communicator artfully dodged the question by responding "I am not going to use the youth and inexperience of my opponent for political purposes".
In 1988 debate Michael Dukakis was bluntly asked if he will pardon his wife's rapist. Dukakis answered yes and his explanation was tinged with liberal views. Politics is a matter of perception and he was perceived as too insensitive, unemotional person and way too liberal. His goose was cooked after the debate.
In the 1992 debate with his young, charismatic opponent Bill Clinton, the elder Bush presiding over an economy in recession, looked aloof. As Clinton connected to the audience by expressing how he feels the pains of the middle class, being one of them, President Bush was caught looking at his watches. Clinton ended up with a comfortable win that November.
1996 was the time of booming elections and Bob Dole was no match for the Charismatic Bill Clinton.
In 2000, Al Gore was seen as talking with long explanation interspersed with sighs, where Dubya Bush was seen as a Washington outsider with whom you can have a beer. The later won in the narrowest of margin in US victory.
In 2004, John Kerry did outstanding performance during his debate with Bush, tied 49-49 on opinion polls after that, until Bin Laden video released days before the election ensured Bush's reelection.
In 2008 McCain who was running for a 3rd Bush term was no match to the charismatic Obama. Poor McCain carried George Bush's legacy of a botched up Iraq War and an economy in a free fall a few days before the election.
In 2012, Romney did very well during the first bedate with Obama, taking a narrow lead over the sitting President following his debate performance. Obama came back strongly during the 2nd and 3rd bedate, clinching the deal.
In 2016 debate Trump was seen as a straight shooter who being an Washington outsider was got the benefit of doubt from the audience. Hillary Clinton looked stoic, lacking emotional connection. The debates may not have hurt Hillary, but didn't help her either as Trump went to win the White House in spite of losing the popular vote.
Given Trump's penchant for raising controversies, the debates are going to attract a lot of attention and could decide the outcome of the next election where voters are split right in the middle in a highly divided nation. It has to be seen if these debates are going to sway the tiny slice of the undecided voters one way or the other. So game on folks...
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