Preview of the first debate between Trump and Biden

 The first of the 3 Presidential debates between the incumbent Donald Trump and his challenger Joe Biden is less than 24 hours away. Though it's the Labor day holiday in the first week of September when Americans usually start paying closer attention to their Presidential politics, it is after the first Presidential debates sets the tone of the campaign before it goes into full swing. 

Now with little more than 5 weeks to go before the election on November 3, the first Presidential debate stands at an important crossroad of this election. In many states, including the crucial swing state of Florida, early voting starts as early as 3 weeks before the election. In that context, the campaign interspersed with 3 Presidential debates starting on 29th September in Cleveland, Ohio has its significance.

Why these Presidential debates are so important ? Because for the first time, the two competitors aspiring for the highest office of the United States will be debating Mano-O-Mano, away from teleprompters, when the eyes of entire America will be fixed on them.

Here is the history of US Presidential debates in nutshell, since the first one between JFK and Richard Nixon in the year 1960. It was the first televised debate when for the first time Americans saw a grumpy Richard Nixon with his 5 O'clock shadow (unshaven beard) showing up versus a young, handsome John Kennedy who went on to win the elections. Kennedy's narrow win was attributed to his debate performance.

There was no Presidential debates held until 1976, when Gerald Ford the incumbent who replaced the Watergate tainted Nixon was pitched against his challenger Jimmy Carter. Ford didn't look serious and made a series of gaffes, notably saying Poland was not part of NATO. This was an inexcusable mistake by a sitting President at the height of Cold War.

In 1980, Carter's popularity plummeted due to a bad economy and the Iran hostage crisis. During their debate at the time of the closing statement the great communicator delivered this master stroke - "When you go to vote next Tuesday, ask yourself are you better off now than 4 years before ? If so, you have your choice, he winked turning his head towards Carter. Else here is the choice you have, he told nodding for himself. Reagan didn't directly tell the voters to choose him, rather gave them an option. Carter could never recover from this punch line as this debate was too close to the Election and Reagan won by a landslide.

In 1984 Ronald Reagan at the age of 74 years was running for his second term. During his famous debate with his much younger opponent Walter Mondale was asked a question by the panel "You are rumored to fall asleep during meetings, are you not too old to run for the office of President of US?"  Reagan, the master communicator artfully dodged the question by responding "I am not going to use the youth and inexperience of my opponent for political purposes".

In 1988 debate Michael Dukakis was bluntly asked if he will pardon his wife's rapist. Dukakis answered yes and his explanation was tinged with liberal views. Politics is a matter of perception and he was perceived as too insensitive, unemotional person and way too liberal. His goose was cooked after the debate.

In the 1992 debate with his young, charismatic opponent Bill Clinton, the elder Bush presiding over an economy in recession, looked aloof. As Clinton connected to the audience by expressing how he feels the pains of the middle class, being one of them, President Bush was caught looking at his watches. Clinton ended up with a comfortable win that November.

1996 was the time of booming elections and Bob Dole was no match for the Charismatic Bill Clinton.

In 2000, Al Gore was seen as talking with long explanation interspersed with sighs, where Dubya Bush was seen as a Washington outsider with whom you can have a beer. The later won in the narrowest of margin in US victory.

In 2004, John Kerry did outstanding performance during his debate with Bush, tied 49-49 on opinion polls after that, until Bin Laden video released days before the election ensured Bush's reelection.

In 2008 McCain who was running for a 3rd Bush term was no match to the charismatic Obama. Poor McCain carried George Bush's legacy of a botched up Iraq War and an economy in a free fall a few days before the election.

In 2012, Romney did very well during the first bedate with Obama, taking a narrow lead over the sitting President following his debate performance. Obama came back strongly during the 2nd and 3rd bedate, clinching the deal.

In 2016 debate Trump was seen as a straight shooter who being an Washington outsider was got the benefit of doubt from the audience. Hillary Clinton looked stoic, lacking emotional connection. The debates may not have hurt Hillary, but didn't help her either as Trump went to win the White House in spite of losing the popular vote.

Given Trump's penchant for raising controversies, the debates are going to attract a lot of attention and could decide the outcome of the next election where voters are split right in the middle in a highly divided nation. It has to be seen if these debates are going to sway the tiny slice of the undecided voters one way or the other. So game on folks...

COVID Diary II -6 months of Pandemic

 On 18th of this month completed 6 months of working from home which coincided with 6 month anniversary of this Pandemic starting to spread in the United States and many other countries in the world. Never in my wildest of dreams I thought of working from home for more than 6 months. But now here I am, still working from home and won't be surprised if I complete one year doing the same.

It was this time in March earlier this year when the Pandemic was its nascent stage. Stopping the spread of a virus is akin to keeping a secret. If you know a  secret and don't want it to spread, just don't tell it to anybody. When you are telling it to some one, the probability of keeping it secret gets reduced by 50%. If that person tells to another person it get reduced to 25% and so on.

If some one tells me a secret, there are chances I may not disclose it to others. But if I am told with the tag "don't tell to any one else", it will raise my curiosity and I will make sure I tell it to somebody. It's basically human nature, the usual disclaimers apply.

One fine afternoon a classmate in REC told the secret about him having an affair with a girl in his neighborhood (a big deal those days when having a girlfriend or boyfriend was considered a taboo). He disclosed it to a few boys at a corner room on the back row of the hostel, trusting the listeners. In less than 30 minutes no sooner he was on his way to the dining table downstairs to grab his afternoon snacks, he was mobbed by others asking him details about his affairs.

On the dining table as he was about to grab his bite, when someone confronted him "TU BAHUT KHUS NASEEB HAI YAAR, TERA KOI GIRL FRIEND HAI" - you are fortunate to have a girlfriend. Feeling irritated he got up and wanted to go to the Backpost - a cluster of snack shops and kiosks where students gather during the evening hours. It was a few blocks of walk from the hostel, so he headed there thinking that he will finally be safe from inquisitive folks. He had taken barely a few steps, some one asked him - "Can you let us show any of your love letters" ? The poor guy turned and went back to the safety of his room. REC (NIT) hostel is a dangerous place to share a secret, especially related to love affairs.

Coming back to COVID, 6 months down the road the cat is already out of bag. Like a gossip or rumor, diligent imposition of social distancing or quarantine could have stopped it. Now it has passed that stage,already spreading its tentacles and not likely to stop anytime soon. 

Once 80% of folks in a hostel or a neighborhood had already heard about it, the story gets its herd immunity as people start to lose their interest in the rumor or gossip and move on to something else. Similarly, this Corona virus will continue until a vaccine is released for the commoners or the community gets a herd immunity at the cost of numerous deaths. Till then, tighen your belts and bear it folks. Like a secret, the Coronavirus has already gone out of the bag.

In memory of Ashwini Palai

 We studied together in DM School Bhubaneswar, followed by two more years in BJB College. He was a plump, fair complexioned, short stature boy who was living at a stone's throw distance from our school. A gem of a guy, loved equally by his friends and teachers. For his characteristic, nonchalant walk we fondly used to tease him as GUNTHUNI HATHI (Roly poly elephant). He would never get angry, will return our compliments with his cherubic smile. He is my friend, Ashwini Palai.

A typical tendency of folks who tease is to go after those who easily get irritated and fall into their trap. But our friend Ashwini, a soft spoken boy was as cool as iceberg, frustrating all by never taking their bait. The caring nature in him always cautioned us when we used to get naughty beyond acceptable limits. Nevertheless, he was a very balanced and mature guy beyond his age.

After doing my +2, I moved out of Bhubaneswar to study Engineering. Ashwini continued there, doing his graduation from OUAT. Like two logs floating on a ocean, colliding with each other before getting separated forever, we lost contact for a long time to come, until the advent of Social media united us gain. 

We reestablished our relationship. I got his contact number from a common friend in the year 2011. He was working for LIC (Life insurance corporation) and was posted in Bihar. I called him couple of times and he didn't picked up the phone. Never someone to loose hope I thought of trying one more time. This time he picked up the phone. He couldn't recall me for couple of minutes. 

I told names of common friends and thought it will give him a hint. Finally he could figure it out - "Oh you are that boy who used to be good in Math". Finally, the dots connected. He profusely apologized for not able to take my call, as in Bihar it isn't prudent to answer calls from unknown numbers. I replied - "No offense taken. This is perfectly understandable". Soon we got connected on Facebook and Whatsapp.

After couple of years he got transferred to Odisha. We continued to stay in touch. From my interactions with him I could guess he had taken a different path in life. He was into spiritualism and I loved my spirits. But it was never a bottleneck in our friendship.

The man suffered a tons of loss. In 2015 he lost his wife to cancer. Today he lost his life after getting admitted to a hospital in Bhubaneswar. When I got this news something snapped inside me.  I feel extremely sorry for his young daughter who has been orphaned in the space of 5 years - an insurmountable tragedy at such a tender age. Stay happy in heaven my friend where you belong.

Two months from US 2020 Elections

 With two months to before for America's 🇺🇸 Presidential Elections, campaigning is slowly starting to pick up. I am certain of one outcome, i.e., Biden is going to win the popular vote. But it may not be enough for him to win the White House. In US Electoral College based system, one can only become the President by winning the majority of the Electoral college votes. That is the tricky part, as one can still become the President by losing the popular vote but winning the Electoral college. In the last election Trump defeated Hillary by winning the crucial swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania though the later got three million more popular votes.

Like Trump, Richard Nixon, the American President who resigned in 1974 facing impeachment lied a lot, did fraud by abusing the power of his office and had dictatorial tendency - hence was not acceptable at that time, even in his own Republican party. But Trump indulges in all the above more than Nixon, yet he is acceptable to almost 40% of Americans. USA is looking more like a first world Bihar, where crooks are pretty much acceptable in Electoral politics.

Trumpism is still going to thrive even if Trump ends up losing his reelection. That's dangerous for America in the long term. Trump's followers, like their Right Wing counterparts across the word don't possess an open mind. They can't be persuaded with logic and reasoning. Only thing they understand is defeat and more defeats. That's the only way to contain them, though not necessarily eliminate their biased minds.

In this context, Trump's defeat is a MUST. Hopefully sanity prevails with that thin slice of independent voters in the Divided States of America who tilt the Elections one way or other. Two months down the road Trump should be shown the door, lest America is doomed.