Feel free to call me a Conspiracy theorist, here is my theory about the current Syrian Imbroglio. After multiple women and children suffered casualty due to the use of chemical weapons alleged by Assad, the Americans along with their poodle dogs Britain (as usual) and France (surprisingly) have bombed selected locations in Syria. But the Syrian strongman who has more than 9 lives of a cat is likely to survive yet again.
Let's take a peek at the players in the global political arena and their stakes :
RUSSIA - It has prodded his proxy Assad to create some mischief in the already messy Syria so that it pushes the gas price further up. Not withstanding the bravado shown by Putin, Russian economy is in shambles, any increase in the crude oil price will help its ailing economy.
With its puppet Trump in White House it can pull some strings by forcing US to do some Arial bombings (Iraq taught a tough lesson to the Americans not to commit ground troups) and create further case to push Brent crude price upwards. After all Putin must be feeling it's high time the US President he helped to win must pay back in kind - fully knowing the orange headed crazy man heading America may not last his full first term. I am sure Trump must have informed Putin before hand that these Air strikes are not on any Russian assets in Syria. He knows very well what Putin got enough material on him to make him a half term President.
AMERICA - A la the last Mughal emperor Bahadur Shah Zaffer, US is acting like an impotent Superpower. Trump seems to be blackmailed by Putin to the hilt, either unwilling or incapable to act against the Russian strong man who is thumbing under his nose. Never I thought that in my life time I will see an American President bullied by a Russian dictator and act like his stooge. Already burdened by a $20 debt and lessons from Iraq fiasco, US won't put boots on the ground.
It is also payback time for Trump as a "thank you" for the support he got from Oil lobby led by the Billionaires like Koch brothers - his BEPARI JATI BHAI (businessmen bros). Remember that BEPARIs or Businessmen are rarely great Statemen, for them profit Trumps all. High oil price suits many Oligarchs with vested interest who rule the world, includes our own Ambanis of India.
SAUDI ARAB and ISRAEL - Enemy's enemy is my friend. Iran, the better noire of both is going to be checkmated as Trump is all set to scrap the Iran deal inked during the Obama administration. Ever since the deal has glutted the world market with surplus of black gold pushing the gas price down for the Saudis chagrin. The white GAMUCHA (cloth) covered, nomadic Saudis want the crude price more than $80 barrell to keep their economy from slumping further. A scrapped Iran deal is double whammy for them, a stronger oil income and weaker Iran who is getting stronger and bolder ever since US removed Saddam - the man who kept Iran under check.
Israel hates Iran to the core (also Assad of Syria) as the later duo finance and supply arms to its sworn enemy Hezbollah. It won't mind a weakened Iran, at the same time the powerful Jewish lobby taking good care of Uncle Sam, with the current occupant of the White House is friendlier to the Jewish state than his predecessor Obama.
CHINA, JAPAN and INDIA - Where do these 3 Asian economic giants stand ? All are energy hungry countries in that order, overwhelmingly dependent on Crude oil import. The economies of the first two, China and Japan are robust enough to take the counter punch as long as the voracious westerners led by the Americans keep buying their stuff.
What about the third of these Asian triumvirates, India ? As we call in Odia, AME MAI NUHE KI GAI NUHE, transliterated "neither female, nor cow" - it means No one cares a hoot for India . We are strategically unimportant to the world. Economically, we are there but not yet there. Modi's government has been extremely lucky for the last 4 years due to low oil price and bountiful monsoon. But if oil prices goes up and mosoon proves to be truant - then Modi's luck runs out, so also India's nascent spectacular GDP growth. So be afraid, be very afraid.
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