Last night Donald Trump during his Afghan themed speech delivered a scathing message to Pakistan. Knowing the double game played by India's western neighbor since time immemorial, his speech was enough to make me glee and veer into a state of reverie.
President Trump declares Pakistan a terrorist state and clamps down on it with unprecedented sanctions against its once non NATO ally. India's National Security Adviser and the Modi's "Man Friday" Ajit Dobhal dashes to DC for talks with his American counterparts to tie up the rest of the formalities.
Not so fast - the pragmatic part of my brain awakened me. Like waning NASHA (kick) from alcohol, I slowly came out of my mid Summer late eveing dream looking into stark reality. Trump and Pentagon are known to be against Pakistan, whereas the Bureaucratic State Department has a pro Pakistan tilt. So it wil be fallacious to think of US divorcing Pakistan, nor is it going to declare it a terrorist state anytime soon.
World relationships are governed by self interest, not driven by emotions or ideologies. US didn't even come close to declare Pakistan a terrorist state when the Americans hunted down their sworn enemy Osama bin Laden next door to Pakistan's Militarily Academy inside the later's heartland. It won't declare now.
About 13 years ago, in the year 2004, George Bush and John Kerry were running neck to neck in the USA Presidential election. Kerry, performed well in his debate and was catching up with Bush, the later with the Iraq War albatross firmly tied to his neck.
John Kerry was closing in fast, until came the October Surprise on 28th of that month, hardly a week prior to the elections. A video of Osama Bin laden was released. It reminded the Americans of 9/11. During the time of crisis the Americans cling to their leaders and give them a free hand, letting the status quo prevail. (On the aftermath of 9/11, Bush's approval rating went up to a record 91 and no one demanded his resignation). The video gave Bush a 2-3% lead in the polls, enough to romp home for his 2nd term.
Please feel to call me a Conspiracy Theorist, but let me connect some dots here. John Kerry spoke virulently against Pakistan's double standard (it's another matter he cuddled the Pakistani Army Chiefs during his tenure as Secretary of State). The then Pakistani President Musharaf must have figured out its best in his interest to bet on Bush's 2nd term. So he did his best to get this video made from Bin Laden, who we all know was living in his backyard, all along and helped delivering Bush Jr. his 2nd term.
Years later, a year before Barack Obama was getting ready for his reelection, the US Navy seals raided and killed Osama Bin Laden deep inside Pakistani territory, next door to the American equivalent of West Point, the Paki Military Academy. It would be preposterous to assume that the Pakis had zero knowledge of this raid by the Americans. Rather the men who matter in Pakistan felt that their famous guest SAIKH (as Laden was called in Afghanist - Pakistan) is more of a liability than an asset, delivering him to Obama, which delivered a 2nd term to the Left liberal lad from Chicago, now perceived as tough against terrorism in a Center-Right nation a year before his crucial reelection.
These two incidents, and incidents like the unflinching support by Pakistan during the 1980s Afghan war at the risk of pitted against the Superpower of erstwhile Soviet Union and many more beyond the scope of this blog, shows Pakistan has been a nation of utility value to Uncle Sam.
In the iconic Hindi movie SHOLAY when a puzzled duo of Amitabh and Dharam ask Sanjeev Kumar why he hired them, the later responded - "LOHE KO LOHA KAT TA HAI" (only iron can cut iron). Bad boys can be of more utility value than good boys. It needs a thief to catch a thief. India has long been perceived as a good boy, but a weak nation vis a vis Pakistan. It hasn't been, rather unable to protect its own turf against a virulently belligerent Pakistan, though tomorrow is another day.
Hence, too much need not be read into President Trump's speech last night. Mercurial as ever, if some pro Pakistani bureaucrat or a lobbyst at a Golf Club can convince Trump about the utility of Pakistan, it will take only seconds for the mercurial Commander in Chief to change his mind and mollycoddle Pakistan once again.
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