As the dust settles down after the Olympics and the Labor day holiday, Americans now start paying closer attention to their Presidential politics, with exactly 2 months to go for the elections on November 8.
In many states, including the crucial swing state of Florida, early voting starts as early as 3 weeks before the election . In that context, the campaign interspersed with 3 Presidential debates starting on 26th September is quite important.
Why these Presidential debates so important ? Because for the first time, the two competitors aspiring for the highest office of the United States will be debating Mano O Mano (Womano this time), off the teleprompter, when the entire America will be fixated on them.
Here is the history of US Presidential debates in nutshell, since the first one between JFK and Richard Nixon in the year 1969. For the first time Americans saw a grumpy Richard Nixon with his 5 O'clock shadow (unshaven beard) showing up versus a young, handsome Kennedy who went on to win the elections.
There was no Presidential debates until 1976, when Gerald Ford the incumbent was pitched against his challenger Jimmy Carter. Ford didn't look serious and made a series of gaffes, notably saying Poland was not part of NATO. This was an inexcusable mistake by a sitting President during the Cold War period.
In 1980, Carter's popularity plummeted due to a bad economy and Iran hostage crisis. During their debate at the time of the closing statement the master communicator delivered this masterstroke - "When you go to vote next Tuesday, ask yourself. Are you better off now than 4 years before ? If so, you have your, he winked turning his head towards Carter. Else here is the choice you have, he told nodding for himself himself. Reagan didn't directly tell the voters to chose him, rather gave them a choice. Carter could never recover from this punch line and Reagan won by a landslide.
In 1984 when Ronald Reagan at 74 was running for his 2nd term, during his famous debate with his younger opponent Walter Mondale was asked a question by the panel "You are rumored to fall asleep during meetings, are you not too old to run for the office of President of US?" Reagan, the master communicator artfully dodged the question by responding "I am not going to use the youth and inexperience of my opponent for political purposes".
In 1988 debate Michael Dukakis was bluntly asked if he will pardon his wife's rapist. Dukakis answered yes and his explanation was tinged with liberal views. Politics is a matter of perception and he was perceived as too insensitive and unemotional person. His goose was cooked after the debate.
In the 1992 debate with his young, charismatic opponent Bill Clinton, the elder Bush presiding over an economy in recession, looked aloof. As Clinton connected to the audience by expressing how he feels the pains of the middle class, being one of them, President Bush was caught looking at his watches. Clinton ended up with a comfortable win that November.
1996 was the time of booming elections and Bob Dole was no match for the Charismatic Bill Clinton.
In 2000, Al Gore was seen as talking with long explanation interspersed with sighs, where Dubya Bush was seen as a Washington outsider with whom you can have a beer. The later won in the narrowest of margin in US victory.
In 2004, John Kerry did outstanding performance during his debate with Bush, tied 49-49 on opinion polls after that, until Bin Laden video released days before the election ensured Bush's reelection.
In 2008 McCain who was running for a 3rd Bush term was no match to the charismatic Obama.
In 2012, Romney did very well during the first debate with Obama, taking a narrow lead over the sitting President following his debate performance. Obama came back strongly during the 2nd and 3rd debate, clinching the deal.
26th September, 2016 is going to see the beginning of the debates. Given Trump's penchant for raising controversies, the debates are going to attract a lot of attention and could decide the outcome of the next election. So game on folks...
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