Not too much should be seen into Pakistan - Russia military activity

I am reminded of a funny story from my home state. A starving jackal was lying on a large field, craving for food. He saw a Bull, happily grazing with it's huge ba**ls swinging like a low hanging fruit from its behind.

 

The hungry jackal wouldn't dare attack the Bull, as the giant bovines reaction can be unpredictable. Watching his forbidden fruit swinging vigorously like pendulum from behind, the Jackal thought its fall is imminent and patiently waited for his meal.

Soon it became noon, evening, followed by twilight. No sign of the Bull's ba**ls  falling off ! The mountain sized bovine moved away after finishing his meal. The frustrated jackal died from starvation.

 

The moral of this story in Odia :

"ANAAI ANAAI GALANI BELA
SANDHA PE**A LAGI MALA SIALA".

 

Roughly transliterated...

"Waiting for the Bull's Ba*ls to Fall,
The Jackal Dies After All."

 

May be inside my lifetime, unlike this ill fated Jackal, I will see a strong, assertive India. Great expectation, but certainly not out of bounds.

 

A Nation or a Person, whose vision goes above and beyond the next quarter into the next quarter of century, succeeds in its mission. USA, Russia, China, Israel fall into that category. Remember, it took Americans nearly a decade to eliminate Bin Laden and Russians 9 years to punish Zia Ul Haq (rumor has been KGB planted a device in his plane to kill him). It took over a decade for Mossad to track down and spectacularly eliminate all the perpetrators of Black September terrorist group who massacred Israeli athletes in 1972, Munich Olympics.

 

Yet a sizable chunk of our establishment are still stuck in Cold War era, having the notion that Russia is our friend, trusted ally etc. No one is a permanent friend or enemy in this murky world of realpolitik, where permanent self interest rules the roost. So not Russia, America or anyone else in our friend, neither enemy too.

 

Russia was using India as its pawn and vassal state during Cold war. Pakistan, forever ready as a vassal state for any bigger power, doing joint exercise with Russia shouldn't come as surprise - as Pakistan's body and soul is perennially  up for grab for a price.

 

I recently read an interview with Vyacheslav Trubnikov, now SVR chief  (Russian secret service post Soviet) from 1996-2000 given to an American journalist. He was born in Siberia and joined KGB in 1967.

 

Immediately he was sent to Calcutta, India under cover as a reporter. He said - "Every journalist in Calcutta those days was considered a spy". A KGB spy in India, in the middle of Commie paradise called Calcutta at the height of Cold War, was certainly not there to do social service with Mother Teresa.

 

Hence, we are unnecessary seeing too much into these short term Military exercise between nations. US, China, Russia play long term games. Global equations change with time. Yesterday US Congress approved an Iranian multi Billion $ deal with Boeing to buy 80 Aircrafts. Obama's Iran deal is starting to yield benefits.

 

America knows well that Pakistan is China's concubine, more than their b**ch. So good relationship with Iran will give Uncle Sam access to Afghanistan through Iranian ports, making him not too depend on NATO convoys to pass through Pakistan. Iran would checkmate the Saudis and America acknowledges Iran's growing influence over Iraq.

 

India, at least from the surface, appears to be playing long term for a change, while our analysts are behaving like 5th grade primary school students, discussing Russia - Pakistan joint exercise as the end of world for India.

 

In that context, like this Hungry Jackal I am still waiting. Remember, I K Gujral withdrew RAW support networks from Pakistan, making us scratch our head and now starting our security from scratch. The present government has some catch up to do and I need to wait for that happen during my lifetime.

The orgasmic imaginary victory over Pakistan

Pakistan taunts us by sending its dogs regularly to pee and shit on our backyard on regular basis. Everytime they do, we condemn them more severely and don't do anything in the guise of jargons like "strategic restraint".

But why Pakistan has been doing so far last quarter of century, each time with more audacity than before ? Because, our pugnacious western neighbor perceives us as weak.

It's akin to my friend from Engineering college days in REC (Now NIT), who during the ragging phase in the first year, like most of us was regularly slapped by our seniors. He would say in Odia - MATE BADEIKI SE BHARI BADA LOKA HEIJIBA. MO JAGA RU HEITHILE TAKU PITI THANTI, meaning "As if by slapping me the senior has become a big guy. If he would have been from my town, I would've beaten him".

Hardly anyone took him seriously. We all knew, he is uttering his frustration and fantasizing imaginary thrashing of the senior, for he is weak and can't do anything. It has hardly anything to do with his "strategic restraint", he was just camouflaging himself with his pacific utterance. We knew, he is simply weak and can't bend the hair of anyone, seniors or otherwise. As soon as the ragging period is over, he forgot and moved on.

And yesterday it was reported by some dubious website about India carrying on a daring raid inside Pakistan, destroying terrorist camps and eliminating them in hundreds. Government of India, not known for its efficiency was hiding the news, showing severe "strategic restraint", or BADA LOKA PANIA (big heartedness) by being humble on such  victory

It reminded me of a related article by Khushwant Singh. The legendary writer, known to be friendly towards Pakistan was once invited by the Pakistani Consulate in Bombay where Premium Scotch was served. When the Sardar enquired, he was told that the party was about commemorating Pakistan's victory over India in 1965 War.

Khushwant Singh said, "May Allah grant you more and more such imaginary victories and may I be invited to such parties where Premium Scotch is served."

So may Ram, Allah, Jesus and Nanak grant us more and more such imaginary victories in future. If someone serves Single Malt celebrating such imaginary victory raids over Pakistan like reported yesterday in some dubious website, I will cheer to that.

US is not going to declare Pakistan a terrorist state anytime soon

Many on social media are gloating over Russia's cancellation of joint military exercise with Pakistan following the Uri terror attack in Kashmir which killed 18 army personnels and injured scores. At the same time they're peeved for US not declaring Pakistan a terrorist state (though two Congressmen have sought it through a bill, it's not gonna happen).

The closeness between US and Pakistan can be traced to Cold War era, and will be there for a while - whether we like it or not. These are the compulsions of realpolitik.

Pakistan is still a major non-NATO US ally. 40000 plus US military and non-military personnels are stationed in Afghanistan. America acknowledges any long term solution there can't happen without Pakistan, where the later is a factor and plays a major role.

Moreover, the NATO convoys run through Pakistan, as Afghanistan is a landlocked country, with Iran on west having no ties to US. So, due to geographical region and reason, it's not easy for Uncle Sam to cut ties with Pakistan. To expect US to declare Pakistan a terrorist state over Uri attack in Kashmir is both premature and preposterous.

Also note that Russia has just cancelled a joint exercise, hasn't cut off diplomatic ties with Pakistan. I don't think it is going to change the former's proposed plan to sell arms and fighter aircraft to Pakistan.

Will India declare Rwanda a terrorist state if Burundi attacks it ? I don't think so. Diplomacy is not a black and white world, had tons of gray area, where only self interest rules the roost, nothing else.

Uri attackin Kashmir and its aftermath

As everyone on social media has an opinion about the Uri attack in Kashmir which took close to a score of lives, I didn't want to be left behind. Yet again, for the umpteenth time it has been well planned, strategized and executed to precision by our belligerent Western neighbor.

Normally, India, a giant nation of multi trillion dollar economy, is expected to make the Pakistan pee in its pants. Yet India seems to possess the weaker bladder, with a proven ability of not doing enough?

A few months ago on Arnab's panel on Times Now Channel, a Paki guy was boasting "Our ISI is far superior to your RAW, you can't do anything more than shouting". He had a point. Pakistan perceives India as a soft and not so swift a state. It can't retaliate beyond token official condemnations and cancellation of cricket matches, its economy and nuclear capability not withstanding.

This is not an unstoppable, lone wolf attack on an isolated civilian target. This an attack on an Army Brigade near the border in a volatile state riddled with insurgency. Such an attack of such audacity can't happen without some sort of local support or inside mole.

Agencies did not rule out the terror masterminds getting help from a 'mole'. "The terrorists were aware of the camp's layout and knew their way around. They had possibly identified the stretches where the fence was not properly manned and accordingly found a safe spot to cut the perimeter wire," an officer said.

With such friends who needs an enemy. I read somewhere that many army men from the camp go out in mass early in the morning for defecating in the open fields in the vicinity of their camp. Glad the terrorists didn't chose them as sitting ducks, at a time these Army men are not expected to carry guns with them. Not sure, what prevents our military folks not having toilets to relieve themselves in privacy, to weather the weather as well as terror.

Pakistan perceives India as week for more than a quarter of century. It's high time we go above and beyond mere condemnation. Only reaction so far has been condemnation and more condemnations. Hopefully we will see some spine in the near future.

In such a case, Pakistan may not have to have to fire a single bullet. It has to tell its guest of honor for decades, Dawood to reveal 10 names of top Indian public figures whom he has in his pocket. I am sure Dawood's pocket dwellers licking his balls can embarass the NDA  government in power. Such blackmailing can yield fantastic results, as as these attacks, while the pernicious Pakis will be having the last laugh.

In the less likely scenario of India making some surgical strikes, Uncle Sam will step in. John Kerry will arrive in Delhi with a few Doles and pacify the hosts not to escalate any futher - not to forget before going back to Washington he will molly coddle the Pakistanis by saying how valuable assets are they in the battle against terror.

The more likely scenario - As the festive season approaches and Dengue fades away from Delhi, the well ensconced Lutyen class will get busy as usual. The lower class preoccupied with its ROZI ROTI (where the next bread will come from) will move on with life.

It's only the Indian middle class who are agitated. But they have a notoriously short memory, their attention span too small. No sooner the next Cricket SHRUNKHALA (series) starts in a few days and the next KHAN movie releases, all will be a thing of the past - Until our recalcitrant neighbor choses the time and place of the next terror strike.

Story of two salaries

There is a saying in Odia which roughly transliterated means - One needs to squeeze only two grains of rice to enure that the full bowl of rice is properly cooked.

In that context, these are couple of true stories which might appear stranger than fictions to some, but not to those folks back home who are familiar with the milieu.

It's not a joke as I know both of these gentlemen personally, so let me call them Mr. X and Mr. Y for the heck of it. Both are currently serving the Sarkar (government) in Odisha. One of them is in the payroll of the government with half salary, the other one with full salary.

Let's talk about the gentleman Mr. X, who works for half salary. Yes, half salary, though it might sound strange. The reason - he was suspended from his job on charges of corruption, ending up staying home, still getting half of his salary (it's ludicrous for paying someone for not working, though it's another matter, he had accumulated enough for his 7 generations, per his own admission).

More ludicrous was the government restoring his job, hhile the ungoing investigation still going on, he still receiving his "Half salary" in full. More than 5 years since he boasts of making at least 50 lakh extra bucks every year, his "half salary" be damned.

Next follows the saga of the other gentleman, Mr. Y serving with "Full Salary" from the beginning. Once burglars broke into the gentelman's house and fled with about Rs.5 lakh in cash. It peeved him to file a complaint at the local police station.

The Police, a strong believer in the ethics of "nothing wrong in stealing from the house of a thief", questioned the source of the stolen cash, leading to him ending up being couphed off another few lakhs by the police to close the investigation. Needless to say, Mr. Y regreted going to the police.

There were days, when corruption was done in hush hush, as folks were less BAHIA (shameless). Now LAZZA (shame) has been shown the door, as boasting about looting public money has become a status symbol.

A la Kishore Kumar's movie "Half Ticket", I now have a script ready for two prospective movies "Half Salary" and "Full Salary". They can be billed as inspired by true indents, with an underlinining disclsimer - The characters are NOT fictional, and any resemblance to any other characters is NOT purely coincidental. Any takers ?

The story of Laxmikant Pyarelal - the immortal duo

Laxmikant Kudalkar and Pyarelal Sharma formed arguably the most famous music director duo of our times, churning out so.e of the best melodies of 70s and 80s. But Laxmikant and Pyarelal had parallel lifestyles.

They were unity in diversity. Laxmikant liked the good things in life and was into frequent late night parties. He was famous for hosting lavish Diwali Card parties (Teen Patties) in Bombay where booze flowed like water. His reckless lifestyle probably contributed to his death at an early age in the year 1998, when he still continued drinking ignoring his doctors warnings.

Pyarelal Sharma in contrast was a more of a private person, a reticent family man who mostly kept to himself. These two, socially poles apart music partners shares something in common in their growing up days - Poverty. Yet together they produced some unparalleled music, giving the Burman father and son duo run for money.

The pair were the favorites of the producers Manmohan Desai and the legendary Raj Kapoor, especially the later who after the box office flop of his  lengthy, drab MERA NAAM JOKER, switched his music director from Shankar - Jaikishan to Laxmikant - Pyarelal duo from his movie BOBBY.

Though LP,  as the popular music director pair were known that time scored many melodies before, Bobby was to them, as ARADHANA was to Kishore Kumar, catapulting them to break into the musical limelight. Post Bobby, the pair never looked back for 15 years, until Laxmikant's death separated them.

(Interestingly Raj Kapoor for reasons best known to him, never opted for Kishore Kumar, even at later's peak, when the Bollywood producers virtually formed a beeline after the eccentric genius. However the LP pair scored several major popular hits of Kishore).

The Laxmikant Pyarelal duo scored some great numbers, doing a balancing act between the Muhammed Rafi and Kishore Kumar. In fact they directed the music of AMAR, AKBAR, ANTHONY and SARGAN which saw Rafi making a comeback of sorts after being in the wilderness for a while due to Kishore's dominance.

After Laxmikant Kudalkar's hedonistic lifestyle led to his early demise, Pyarelal continued to direct music for a while. But the absence of his partner was akin to the missing chord of an accordion.

As it's impossible to clap using one hand, the hand of Laxmikant was missing in action. The JUGALBANDI or dual chemistry delivered by the duo for decades, couldn't be replicated by Pyarelal alone as his music was never the same without his partner. Bollywood will forever indebted to these mastestro duo for entertaining us with some immortal melodies.

Sick Hillary out of Campaign as her numbers drop

Hillary's current sickness seems to have taken a toll, as per latest CNN-ORC Poll, Trump has taken a 5 point lead over her in the crucial swing states of Florida and Ohio. Her Campaign has pressed the panic button by releasing her medical records.

As she is indisposed until Thursday, Obama has temporarily taken over the
baton from her. Campaigning yesterday he looked so Presidential, way way ahead of the current candidate duo of the Dumb and the Dumber. Obama was seen smiling, basking in glory due on the aftermath of his 58% approval ratings, only matched by Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton during their 2nd term.

Can't be more appropriate as only 50% of Americans trust Donald Trump, versus still lesser 35% only trust Hillary. In our Engineering College 35% was the score needes to pass an exam. It means Hillary is on the threshold of getting a "F" in trustability.

In that context, her recent passing out in New York which she attributes to Pneumonia is important. In reality, she won't loose a single vote if she is suffering from a temporary bout of Allergy (her constant coughing during campaigning last week) or Pneumonia, if she is speaking the truth.

But politics is a matter of perception. It's not what you really are, it's what the people perceive who you really are (This applies in the real life too). It could fit into the narrative that Hillary is hiding something.

In 1984 when Ronald Reagan at 74 was running for his 2nd term, during his famous debate with his younger opponent Walter Mondale he was asked a question by the panel "You are rumored to fall asleep during meetings, are you not too old to run for office of the President of US?" Reagan, the master communicator artfully dodged the question by responding "I am not going to use the youth and inexperience of my opponent for political purposes".

But Hillary is no Reagan. It could very well hurt her ratings of truthfulness and trustability and it seems so, per her latest slide in the polls. Republicans will do everything to pin her on her heath. So game on folks, as the race for White House is swinging like pendulum.

Prelude to the Presidential debates

As the dust settles down after the Olympics and the Labor day holiday, Americans now start paying closer attention to their Presidential politics, with exactly 2 months to go for the elections on November 8.

 

In many states, including the crucial swing state of Florida, early voting starts as early as 3 weeks before the election . In that context, the campaign interspersed with 3 Presidential debates starting on 26th September is quite important.

 

Why these Presidential debates so important ? Because for the first time, the two competitors aspiring for the highest office of the United States will be debating Mano O Mano (Womano this time), off the teleprompter, when the entire America will be fixated on them.

 

Here is the history of US Presidential debates in nutshell, since the first one between JFK and Richard Nixon in the year 1969. For the first time Americans saw a grumpy Richard Nixon with his 5 O'clock shadow (unshaven beard) showing up versus a young, handsome Kennedy who went on to win the elections.

 

There was no Presidential debates until 1976, when Gerald Ford the incumbent was pitched against his challenger Jimmy Carter. Ford didn't look serious and made a series of gaffes, notably saying Poland was not part of NATO. This was an inexcusable mistake by a sitting President during the Cold War period.

 

In 1980, Carter's popularity plummeted due to a bad economy and Iran hostage crisis. During their debate at the time of the closing statement the master communicator delivered this masterstroke - "When you go to vote next Tuesday, ask yourself. Are you better off now than 4 years before ? If so, you have your, he winked turning his head towards Carter. Else here is the choice you have, he told nodding for himself himself. Reagan didn't directly tell the voters to chose him, rather gave them a choice. Carter could never recover from this punch line and Reagan won by a landslide.

 

In 1984 when Ronald Reagan at 74  was running for his 2nd term, during his famous debate with his younger opponent Walter Mondale was asked a question by the panel "You are rumored to fall asleep during meetings, are you not too old to run for the office of President of US?"  Reagan, the master communicator artfully dodged the question by responding "I am not going to use the youth and inexperience of my opponent for political purposes".

 

In 1988 debate Michael Dukakis was bluntly asked if he will pardon his wife's rapist. Dukakis answered yes and his explanation was tinged with liberal views. Politics is a matter of perception and he was perceived as too insensitive and unemotional person. His goose was cooked after the debate.

In the 1992 debate with his young, charismatic opponent Bill Clinton, the elder Bush presiding over an economy in recession, looked aloof. As Clinton connected to the audience by expressing how he feels the pains of the middle class, being one of them, President Bush was caught looking at his watches. Clinton ended up with a comfortable win that November.

 

1996 was the time of booming elections and Bob Dole was no match for the Charismatic Bill Clinton.

In 2000, Al Gore was seen as talking with long explanation interspersed with sighs, where Dubya Bush was seen as a Washington outsider with whom you can have a beer. The later won in the narrowest of margin in US victory.

 

In 2004, John Kerry did outstanding performance during his debate with Bush, tied 49-49 on opinion polls after that, until Bin Laden video released days before the election ensured Bush's reelection.

In 2008 McCain who was running for a 3rd Bush term was no match to the charismatic Obama.

In 2012, Romney did very well during the first debate with Obama, taking a narrow lead over the sitting President following his debate performance. Obama came back strongly during the 2nd and 3rd debate, clinching the deal.

 

26th September, 2016 is going to see the beginning of the debates. Given Trump's penchant for raising controversies, the debates are going to attract a lot of attention and could decide the outcome of the next election. So game on folks...

Beef at Breakfast, lose your Religion fast

This morning while beefed up at a mostly Beefy Breakfast meeting (Beef Quiche, beef sausages, patties and so on), I inadvertently ate couple of sausages, mistaking them as Turkey ones.

Now, a la the Narasingha Naidoo character of JATIRA DHAKKA (The jolt from Caste) from my middle school Odia Literature textbook - I lost my caste.

Narasimha Naidoo, a poor labor ventures out of his village and returns back only to be ostracized by his villagers. By travelling far and wide, he was condemned of losing his caste and was told in no uncertain terms,

JA PURI JA
GOBAR PANI PI
TEBE JAI JATI PHERI PAIBU. Meaning..

Go to Puri (sacred temple city of Hindus)
Drink Cow dung laced water,
You can get your caste back.

In order to get my caste back, as my PAITA (sacred thread worn by Brahmins) has gone MARA (loss of sanctity), I need to do a penance of taking bath in cow dung laced water, sprinkled liberally with GANGAJAL (water from sacred river Ganga), followed by multiple trips to the Puri Jagannath temple.

So the moral is - Eat Beef at Breakfast, lose your Religion fast. To get it back later, follow this prescription faster.

Creativity and Unstable Mind

Since childhood, most from my generation have been fed with this idea of controlling our restless minds for enhancing its creativity. Now I am fed up with this notion, that a controlled mind achieved via controlled breathing and meditation should be seen as the best bet for innovation.

 

I can sight several example to contradict this myth. The best example to bet against this prevalent theory are the eminent writers R  K Narayan and Khushwant Singh. Both were never academically brilliant. The ebullient, unorthodox Sardar, the perpetual agnostic admitted that exams gave him nightmares. He hated Yogas and Asanas prescribed to him, as it hardly made any difference to his fertile mind.

 

Many Creativity's products emanate from restless minds. Writers like O Henry wrote his classic stories from jail. The poet John Keats wrote his best poems when Consumption (Tuberculosis) was consuming him.

 

So also Toru Dutt, the talented Bengali poetess of 19th Century, who wrote some masterpieces before she died at the tragic young age of 21. Most of her poems were composed during her painful battle with terminal tuberculosis, which eventually claimed her.

 

Hemmingway, the brilliant American writer was suffering from depression, eventually committing suicide. So also the Oscar winning Robin Williams and our own legendary Guru Dutt. An Oscar winning Hollywood movie "The Beautiful Mind" best depicts the story of another eccentric genius with turbulent mind.

 

Kishore Kumar, arguably the most complete artist in Bollywood - an actor, singer, music director etc, was a genius but an outright eccentric. He was known to be extremely restless on the sets, but no one could match his versatility.

 

The actors Shah Rukh Khan and the cricketer Tendulkar are also known to be extremely restless. The popular actor is a chain smoker and self proclaimed  addict to video games - both tell tell signs of mental agitations.

 

Tendulkar, probably the best batsman India has ever produced, rarely gets a good night sleep before an important game. Yet, he hardly shows any sign of fatigue on field, eking out one master knocks after another.

 

And there are many such examples. The mind of a normal person may benefit from a boost from reigning it in using meditations and mind control. For a genius, a restless mind is the best bet. Geniuses are always born - rarely made. Their minds need not be altered, best left to themselves for best results.

Trump and Daily Security Briefings

In 1945, the 4th term American President Roosevelt, popularly known as FDR, died in office. Harry Truman who was barely 6 months in office as his VP,  stepped into the President's shoes.

At that point Truman had no idea that Nuclear weapons existed and was literally startled when he came to know about the Manhatten Project. He was soon briefed about it and not long after that gave his consent to drop couple of those bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, putting a full stop to World War II.

His experience due to the lack of prior knowledge as VP about the Manhatten project. prompted him to launch a fresh tradition. From 1952, he started sharing the National Security briefings amongst the nominated Presidential candidates. He allowed his opponent and the eventual winner of that election, IKE (Dwight Isenhower) to be defriefed on state classified matters.

This has been offered to every Presidential candidate since then, an offer he or she need not take. In fact, in 1984, the then Democrat nominee Walter Mondale refused to take this offer. But most get a knowledge of the security elated briefings during their tenure of Presidential campaign.

Now with Trump being the official Republican nominee, there some concerns about sharing state secrets like ungoing Covert operations and other classified activities with him.

Knowing his penchant for being crazy and unpredictable, not to mention his dislikes for the Bushes, Obama and of course the Clintons, he can very well spill the beans during the campaign to pin his opponent. At this crucial stage of the campaign, when he has halved Clinton's lead of 9 points to 4 points, he won't mind to go for the kill with, pulling out a few skeletons from Hillary's cupboard to wipe out her lead.

So damned if he is made privy to the Classified Briefings, damn if he doesn't. We have interesting couple of months approaching in this Election game, where unlike the Olympics there is no Silver or Bronze medal.