Monday, June 6, 2016

Modi's 4th trip to USA - June 2016

Once Obama's secretary informed the President - Someone just called but isn't saying anything. "Must be Manmohan, tell him Namaste" - said Obama. It's a joke we heard before.

But it is not a joke, when compared to our ex-Prime Minster, his present bearded counterpart is on the other side of the spectrum. He is extrovert, overtly flamboyant, doesn't hesitate to speak his mind or shy away from snatching the limelight in international forums.

As Modi visits Coke Land yet again, a record 4th time, it's turbulent time in American politics. Obama is considered as a lame duck at the fag end of his Presidency. So Modi is doing the smart thing by strategically addressing the Congress, whose members unlike their President are not restricted by term limit.

They have nothing to lose by accepting Modi's lucrative business offers, in the form of Arms and Defence deals and investments. For any Congressman (or woman), it would bring more revenue and jobs to their electorates, improving their electability in the next election. A win win situation for them.

No one understands business better than Uncle Sam - due to its rare ability to  blend innovation with trade to perfection, like rarest of the rare Blended Scotch Whiskeys. Its investors are attracted by seer number of people in India, their purchasing power fuelled by 8% GDP  growth.

It explains why the CEOs from Facebook to Apple visit India on regular basis. This happens at a time when China is showing all signs of a slowdown (After 35 years of stupendous growth, it was bound to and can afford a slowdown). This is an opportunity India shouldn't miss.

Modi, who is not alien to the Whirlwinds of politics, should be amart enough to understand the political wind blowing in the American heartland - a phenomena called Donal Trump, with the wind of change firmly behind him.

The Indian PM should take a moment to meet the man with the momentum. For
Modi it is deja vu - been there, seen that. Trump could be very well catapulted to power, same way he did. Not meeting Trump would be akin to missing an opportunity. (It will be wise not to put all eggs in one basket by meeting Hillary too).

First impression lasts long and personal chemistry amongs national leaders matter a lot. It's entirely possible, Modi and Trump, both Demagogues with similarities, can carry on as leaders of respective countries till 2014 (Modi if wins his reelection in 2019 and Trump could very well be a 2 term elected President, a tradition only broken twice in last 50 years).

There are challenges in this relationship.
Notwithstanding the reported bonhomie between India and US (seen mostly by our media back home, the mainstream American media doesn’t share the same euphoria), Pakistan continues to be strategically important to America, especially vis a vis in relation to its contentious Af-Pak (Afghanistan - Pakistan) policy. Just reverse the way  "Af-Pak", "Fak-Ap". As it sounds, it aptly summarizes the issue as it stands today, so also US policy in that turbulent neighborhood.

Call it an obsession, reality is the big elephant in the room called Pakistan, a factor which it can't easily ignore. Pakistan is America's first love, an old flame which just refuses to extinguish, coming back to haunt like a recurring migraine. Our western neighbor is often treated by Uncle Sam as a "con**m" time and again, used for convenience and conveniently discarded afterwards.

In that context, Modi is doing the right thing by sticking to his Business. A growing economy is making "Make in India" more attractive and he is doing a good job at hard selling it. It took China years to build its muscle power by building its economy. It's time not to rock the boat with as he stedies it at its helm.

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