Trump's nomination being assured, Hillary fires the first cannon at her presumptive rival, by calling him a "Loose Cannon". The battle line are drawn - though it won't be until July, when both Trump and Hillary become the official nominees of their respective parties by accepting the nomination at their conventions.
An year before, if anyone predicted Trump winning the Republican nomination, would have been regarded as hallucinating or under some sort of substance abuse. But he defied the norms, laughing his way, taking one step towards the cherished, most powerful position on surface of earth.
Here is my take on why Trump beat all the conventional wisdoms and won against all odds.
First, it has a lot to do with America's fascination towards new face. John McCain being a veteran politician knew it, so brought in Sarah Palin as his running mate to salvage his faltering campaign in 2008. The lady's sudden arrival at the national political scene had an electrifying effect, soon catching the imagination of American public. But it wasn't enough to puncture Obama's meteoric rise - another new face who successfully sold his message of "Hope and Change".
Secondly, the current mood in America is anti-establishment. The general perception with the general public - the Washington has failed them. Trump during his campaign, time and again successfully painted his rivals as stooge of lobbyists and it worked well for him. The fact that a 74 old nondescript, self proclaimed socialist (a rarity in America - a centre right country), is continuing to give Hillary Clinton a run for money, has vindicated it.
Thirdly, he spent his own money, versus his rivals who spent an estimated $400 millions of mostly donor's money, only to see the "Stop Trump" movement collapsing like a pack of cards. Money well spent on Negative ads against him was money well wasted, with minimal effect on Trump's popularity amongst his supporters.
Finally, he touched a cord with the Conservative Republican base of the party - the Suburban White, Male who are hit by migration of their jobs to offshore and diehard opponents of illegal immigrants, who now number, estimated to be 12 millions.
It will be foolish for Democrats to underestimate the Trump phenomenon. A candidate with momentum on his back can be of dangerous proposition to his opponents. One only has to go back couple years when a resurgent Narendra Modi caught his opponents off guard. Trump is a powerful orator who connects to his audience and is already a cult figure to his diehard fans.
Per my calculation, in a normal election Hillary will beat Trump by 350-190 electoral college votes. But we are not living in normal times. A major terror strike on American soil or an unprecedented economic slump can overturn the applecart. Still a word of
caution to Hillary - Underestimate him at your peril.
Lastly, I suggest we get rid of this system of delegates, super delegates, proportional allocation, winner take all, pledged delegates etc, by switching to an election system of simple majority. Let the person who wins the highest votes get nominated - as simple as that.
Also, it's time to get beyond this electoral college system. Whoever wins the highest number votes nationally, becomes the President. Otherwise, the electoral dysfunction of year 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but Bush won the Presidency, can repeat yet again.
An year before, if anyone predicted Trump winning the Republican nomination, would have been regarded as hallucinating or under some sort of substance abuse. But he defied the norms, laughing his way, taking one step towards the cherished, most powerful position on surface of earth.
Here is my take on why Trump beat all the conventional wisdoms and won against all odds.
First, it has a lot to do with America's fascination towards new face. John McCain being a veteran politician knew it, so brought in Sarah Palin as his running mate to salvage his faltering campaign in 2008. The lady's sudden arrival at the national political scene had an electrifying effect, soon catching the imagination of American public. But it wasn't enough to puncture Obama's meteoric rise - another new face who successfully sold his message of "Hope and Change".
Secondly, the current mood in America is anti-establishment. The general perception with the general public - the Washington has failed them. Trump during his campaign, time and again successfully painted his rivals as stooge of lobbyists and it worked well for him. The fact that a 74 old nondescript, self proclaimed socialist (a rarity in America - a centre right country), is continuing to give Hillary Clinton a run for money, has vindicated it.
Thirdly, he spent his own money, versus his rivals who spent an estimated $400 millions of mostly donor's money, only to see the "Stop Trump" movement collapsing like a pack of cards. Money well spent on Negative ads against him was money well wasted, with minimal effect on Trump's popularity amongst his supporters.
Finally, he touched a cord with the Conservative Republican base of the party - the Suburban White, Male who are hit by migration of their jobs to offshore and diehard opponents of illegal immigrants, who now number, estimated to be 12 millions.
It will be foolish for Democrats to underestimate the Trump phenomenon. A candidate with momentum on his back can be of dangerous proposition to his opponents. One only has to go back couple years when a resurgent Narendra Modi caught his opponents off guard. Trump is a powerful orator who connects to his audience and is already a cult figure to his diehard fans.
Per my calculation, in a normal election Hillary will beat Trump by 350-190 electoral college votes. But we are not living in normal times. A major terror strike on American soil or an unprecedented economic slump can overturn the applecart. Still a word of
caution to Hillary - Underestimate him at your peril.
Lastly, I suggest we get rid of this system of delegates, super delegates, proportional allocation, winner take all, pledged delegates etc, by switching to an election system of simple majority. Let the person who wins the highest votes get nominated - as simple as that.
Also, it's time to get beyond this electoral college system. Whoever wins the highest number votes nationally, becomes the President. Otherwise, the electoral dysfunction of year 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but Bush won the Presidency, can repeat yet again.
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