Here is my assessment of the possible Scenario from the Post Bihar elections. If BJP loses Bihar or performs below par, it would be mostly because of the following two reasons.
Firstly, it's failure to project a viable Chief Ministerial candidate. Not sure why didn't they project Susil Modi as the CM. Some say, they did that in Delhi and failed. But Susil Modi is a veteran with a clean image, unlike Kiran Bedi he is not considered as an outsider, a suave politician and could have been a viable alternative to Nitish. Not to mention, BJP won last Lok Sabha elections by projecting Modi as their PM candidate (Both Narendra and Sushil Modi are no Bedi ).
Secondly, RSS chief speaking the right thing about Reservation at the wrong time. Bihar, especially its rural areas, is polarized along caste lines. BJP's opponent has been quoting the statement of RSS's chief time and again during the campaign. BJP, though disassociated themselves from Mohan Bhagat's statement, would be wishing their associates to keep their mouth shut, and rightly so.
Looking at the bigger picture post elections, a BJP's loss could put a spanner on the nascent developmental activities initiated by the center. If the development is a bamboo pole, it will be the same old story of the monkey climbing 2 feet up and 1 feet down. Forget about the Opposition, the like Shiv Sena and Satrughna Sinha will come out with sheath open to grab their pound of flesh. A word of caution to the supporters of BJP and those wished country's development post UPA - Be afraid, be very afraid.
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