Voters are the King - Analysis of Delhi Elections 2020

The results of the Elections in Delhi are out. The Bollywood Actor Anupam Kher, now a prominent member of BJP should deliver to Modi-Shah duo his famous dialogue playing the role of Dr. Dang from the movie KARMA, "IS THAPPAD KI GOONJ SUNI TUMNE" (Did you hear the reverberation of this slap) ?

The outcome of the Delhi Elections is a much needed slap on the face of BJP  and a well deserved one. Hope the leadership of the party smell the coffee and wake up, focus on more pertinent issues like economy rather than waste time on issues which are hardly urgent and polarizing people

Voters are the King in a democracy. Delhi voters are smart lot. Those BJP folks now accusing the city-zens of national capital as MUFTKHOR (Suckers for Freebies) for voting AAP,  should remember that BJP made a clean sweep of Metro in Lok Sabha Elections held last May. They never complained at that time. Now, in 8 months or so the Delhites became Freeloaders ! Hypocrisy galore.

It is not uncommon for voters to choose separate parties in Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections. We must respect the choice of electorates. Those who blame the Delhi voters being suckers for freebies, should remember that the same suckers for freebies voted for Modi in 2019.

This leaves only 3 of the current breed of opposition leaders who have been reelected inside BJP's second term. They are Kejriwal, Mamata and our own Naveen Patnaik (who I believe keeps a low profile and is soft on BJP at center) aren't politicians at national level. These leaders are at best Regional Sartraps and have their own limitations, hardly capable of challenging Modi led BJP at the center.

Those who supported AAP (Common Man's Party) big time should know that the party is now mostly reduced to our Nation's Capital. It is a big let down from what once perceived as a national level alternative to Congress and BJP. It reminds me of the jibe traded at last Mughal Emperor Bahadur Sah Zaffer's ever shrinking empire -

SULTAN SAHA-E-ALAM
AAJ DILLI SE PALAM.
(The mighty emperor's Kingdom,
 Is now from Delhi to Palam).

The BJP supporters don't have to lose heart. As of now there is no national alternative to Modi. The Lok Sabha Elections are a different ball game. Though India is a Parliamentary democracy, its National Election is fought in Presidential style. There is no viable alternative to Modi at the center. Looking at history two sitting Prime Ministers popular at National level lost their reelection as the opposition was able to prop up an alternative.

Only due to JP (Jaiprakash Narain) bringing all opposition parties together under a single umbrella in 1977, Indira Gandhi was removed from power. VP Singh's arrival in 1989 ousted Rajeev Gandhi. Unless the opposition comes up with a viable national level face as an alternative to Midi, be ready for a 3rd BJP term in 2024.

Crawling then, crawling now

Indira Gandhi imposed national emergency in June, 1975, followed by clipping the Freedom of Press. She expected the media to bend. But to her surprise media crawled, mostly towing the government line.

Now fast forward to the year 2020. Kunal Kamra, a stand up comedian hitherto unknown to most public, publicly heckled Arnab Goswami, a news anchor who is a household name in India. What he did was totally unacceptable. Apparently it was a pure publicity stunt, although Arnab Goswami is no lily white either.

In such cases of unruly behavior, the perpetrator is usually handed over to the law enforcement authorities, as Odisha's CM Naveen Patnaik often says - "Let law take its own course". But what followed was a classic case of overreaction. The Airlines competed with one another to ban Kunal Kamra. Frankly the Airlines raised storm in the teacup - making mountains out of molehills. The stand up Comedian succeeded in his mission. I didn't know who Kunal Kamra was until little more than a week ago. Now I am writing about him.

So much water has flown in river Ganga since 1975. Indira Gandhi strangulated the Press at a time when the electronic media was government controlled monopoly - Black & White TV limited to few Metros and the ubiquitous government mouthpiece All India Radio. Now we have hundreds of private channels ruling the airwaves. Internet has brought information to fingertips. Social media has made everyone a citizen journalist, with a double edged sword.

What hasn't changed over these years ? We were spineless then, we are spineless now. Mainstream media is crawling when asked only to bend before Mahaprabhu and co. The Airlines flew a step higher to prove their unflinching obsequiousness - doing the comic act by competing with one other to ban a stand up Comedian. There is no winner in this drama except Kunal Kamra who must be happily walking to his bank.

Coronavirus and Chinese reaction

Prevention is always better than cure. Though China is currently addressing the Coronavirus on a war footing basis, it certainly mishandled it in the initial stages when the dreaded disease was in its infancy.

A doctor who took the disease seriously when it initially appeared towards last year end, revealed the same on a WeChat group about the virus ( WeChat is a popular microblogging site in China where Facebook, Twitter etc are banned). He was summarily disciplined by the Communist Party, quickly accused of rumor mongering.

The solution to any problem starts at admitting of its existence and owning it, followed by decisive actions taken. The secretive, insecure and image conscious Chinese authorities disowned it by "pooh poohing" the initial scare, allowing the disease to progress into a stage which can be very well described using the Odia phrase - NEDI GUDA KAHUNI KU BOHI JIBA (Allowing Jaggery from the palm to flow into the elbow). It simply means, knowlingly allowing a problem to persist, until it reaches an unrecoverable. Chinese authorities exactly did that, reacted only when the epidemic had spread its tentacles far and wide enough to disclose about it to the rest of the world.

This is a typical characteristic of authoritarian regimes - refuse to acknowledge the existence of an issue at first and then procrastinate any attempt at resolution. When confronted, deny it and act later. We see similar trends in India, though not in Chinese scale. Now we have a government at center who refuses to admit that there exists a problem in its economy whose health right now can be described as sick & struggling at best. 

Rather than tackling the prevailing weak economy, the inept authorities are working round the clock in Pushing GALLUs defending it (transliteration of Odia term GALU PELIBA, which means Stubborn and shameless self denial. Will appreciate if someone can provide me the most appropriate word for GALUAMI). They are still in a sleep mode, frugally applying cosmetic bandaid after bandaid to a wound which needs surgery. 

A la YATHA RAJA, TATHA PRAJA (Like the Ruler, like the Ruled) their equally GALUA devotees, a diehard bunch of closed minded faddists, many of whom are government servants, retirees and those with a secured income who don't feel the pinch of a bad economy continue to defend their government at the helm. 

Akin to China's initial reaction to Coronavirus, we are still in a denial mode regarding our economy which is in bad shape and in dire need of urgent steps of resuscitation. 

But alas, CHEIN SOUTHIBA JIE, TAKU UTHEIBA KIE (Who will wake up the one who is awake pretends to be sleeping). Though late, the Chinese authorities have woken up and on target to built two huge makeshift hospitals in a week as their machinery is hurrying round the clock 24X7 to reach their target. They may well achieve that and contain the disease. Can we smell the coffee and replicate the same to our economy ? Your guess is as good as mine.

Manoj Das and Padma Award

The Bollywood actor of yester years, Raj Kumar known for his legendary style of dialogue delivery said this about his actor friend Dilip Kumar - "JAAANI,  HAMAARI INDUSTRY ME WOHI TO EK ACTOR HAI, BAKI SAB BANDAR HAI (In our industry only Dilip Kumar is an actor, rest are monkeys). It sounded like deja vu when I got the news of the Award of PADMA BHUSAN bestowed upon the Odia writer Manoj Das, who I believe is the real writer, way above most of his writers fraternity.

Sri Manoj  Das is one of the few Indian writers and fewer Odia writers I admire. His writing is cool,crispy, original, lucid, elegant and entertaining without using many bombastic words. Ever since I read his book ALOKA O ANANDA RA KAHANI (Story of Light and Delight) published by National Book Trust (NBT) in 1977, I never looked back. A bilingual writer at ease with both Odia, his mother tongue and English, he is an excellent storyteller.

His winning of the Award reminded me of the adage - Too little, too late. No doubt the Award is well deserved, but the man deserves a lot better, lot earlier. Though these Padma-whatever awards are politicized beyond redemption, I am glad a brilliant writer from my state of Odisha finally got much his deserved recognition, adding another feather to his cap.

I always consider Odisha as the perfect graveyard of any creative pursuit. We Odias (the usual disclaimers apply) are poor appreciators of art, literature and proactive contributors to the society. We prefer licking the boots of petty Babus, Vassals and politicians. Coming from a feudal society, I heard folks eulogizing the Babus - "ARRE SE IAS OFFICER PEE KI BADEILA" (So and So IAS officer got drunk and beat some hapless folks). Rarely they acknowledge or appreciate entrepreneurs, artists and writers. 

Unfortunately Manoj Das comes from such a milieu. He was conveniently ignored in a state where cheap detective writer Pramod Kishore Panda sold more books. Fortunately for him he relocated to Pondicherry where recognitions followed. Had Manoj Das been a Bengali he could have been put on a different pedestal. Glad he went out of Odisha, otherwise he would have rotted.

Soon his fame started spreading far and wide - from the far East Singapore who hired Manoj Das as their cultural consultant to far West America where his famous story ABU PURUSHA (The Hunchback) was published in a well known literary Magazine. Khushwant Singh regularly serialized Manoj Das's stories when the former was the Editor of the widely circulated Illustrated Weekly of India, only such magazine of the time.

When many writers were dying to get published under Khushwant Singh, the Sardar selected a few and one of those few was our own Manoj Das. The two writers were a mutual admirer duo. Sri Das admired the witty Sardar as "JANE NIRBHIKA LEKHAKA" (One fearless writer). 

Apart from writing some fabulous reads, Manoj Das is a vegetarian and spiritual person to core. His writing touches the simple truth and philosophy of life. He never hurts a fly. But Khushwant Singh never spared anyone, including himself through self deprecating jokes and mocking his own community and the religious Gurus.

One was known for his sagacious writing and the other for his salacious ones. Unlike poles attract each other. Manoj Das in his tribute to Khushwant Singh after the later's death has described how liquor used to flow during evenings at the Sardar's party, while Manoj Das would be sipping his endless glasses of Tomato juice in the literary company. 

These two great writers formed a unique bond in diversity, of mutual trust and respect. The old Sardar kept writing well into his 90s and may Sri Manoj Das, who now in his his 80s and still going strong continue the magic flowing from his pen.

US and China - An odd couple

Finally, the two largest economies in the world, US and China had to climb down from a confrontational mode of trading exchanges on their trade war to making compromise by signing a trade deal.

For Trump it works well, as politics is a matter of perception and he is now perceived as being tough on China - his hot air rhetorics not withstanding. It helps Trump in an election year when he can barely risk further escalation as more tariffs on Chinese good will jack up the prices of cheap consumer products flooding the American market, not to mention an unstable middle East and impeachment process at home being flies on the ointment. In the Middle Kingdom, as China is known as, a perpetual Hong Kong headache hogging the headlines it too needs a compromise as at 6% GDP, a big climb down from 32 consecutive years of astounding double digit growth it is heavily dependent on the indefatigable American consumer to sustain and survive.

US and China make an odd couple, ready to get even at each other. Or may not be so odd, conspicuously akin to numerous married couples who don't like each other but stick together simply because of mutual dependency. Otherwise, they know that HUM TO DUBENGE SANAM, LEKIN TUM KO LEKE HI DUBENGE (I will drown, but I will take you down with me). Simply means - we better stick together or perish together.

Both are suspicious, distrustful, frequently spy on each other, and occasionally flirt with paramours. They hold each other's hand and fake smiles for public consumption, fighting in private. Yet end of the day, they stay together to protect their common interest. Like two sides of coin they may not be able to see each other but need to live together. 

Their marriage was arranged by one Richard Nixon in 1973 on the advise of the irrefutable, wily matchmaker Henry Kissinger, known for his out of box maverick foreign policy to checkmate then Soviet Union at the height of Cold War. The husband US obviously had the upper hand then vis a vis a coy, unsure and insecure of herself China, a la a new bride in an arranged marriage.

Lots of water have flown down in rivers Mississippi and Yangtze Kiang. The irritant in the relationship but the reason for them to marry called Soviet Union has long lost it's venomous fang. Now China has an equal if not the larger say in the relationship. America cannot divorce her so easily and diverse his attention to another suitor as she has the custody of its debt like their child. This relationship will sustain as long as the producer-cum-debtor China will be lending in USD to its favorite consumer America to consume its product.

China wants American consumers to buy what it makes, otherwise its export oriented economy will be in serious trouble. It could open the lid of a can of worms which kept closed tightly till date by the Chinese authorities and lead to social unrest in a nation of 1.4 billion people which would be a nightmarish scenario for them to handle.

The smart and foresighted leaders of the Middle Kingdom know it. All bravado not withstanding both US and China cannot do without each other. Chinese products from Toys to Tilapia flood the American market. Even the ubiquitous American Flags visible on 4th of July have "Made in China" tag. 

Huge ocean liners ply goods across the Pacific manufactured in miles long Sanghai EPZ (Export Processing Zone) for the voracious American consumers. It's said that if those shipping liners stop coming to US West Coast for couple of weeks the prices in Wal Mart would double. China has managed to deliver what we call in Odia BEPARI (Business) parlance - SASTA, SUNDAR, MAJBHOOT (cheap, pretty and durable) products. What more a consumer wants from buying prospective.

Reminds me of the SAHUKAR MAHAJAN (traders and money lenders) in villages back home. They lend money to their customers in their village so that the latter can buy their produce. As it's said in Sanskrit RUNAM KRITVA GHRUTAM PIVET" - Borrow money to drink Ghee (clarified butter)", the US - China relationship perfectly describes it, on a larger scale of course. The show must go on. The couple likely to stick together for mutual benefits, their bickering not withstanding.

A letter to Trump fans in India from a well wisher

I see a lot of Trump fans in India who are also supporters of Narendra Modi and BJP. They are Right wing leaning and see American Conservatism and Donald Trump as their natural ally. A few have even gone to the extent of requesting me to cast my vote in favor of Trump in his reelection bid in the 2020 US elections. I have politely turned them down. One thing I am sure about myself - I am NOT voting for Trump. Period. That's non negotiable.

Don't think Trump even knows or even cares about his fans back in India. So here is my letter to Trump fans back home with love.

Apart from the word "Conservative", there is hardly any similarity between American conservatives and their Indian counterparts. American conservatives eat beef aplenty. Forget about eating bovine meat, the Indian right leaning Hindu conservatives even abhor the thought about it and hound those talk about consuming the bovine meat. Donald Trump and overwhelming majority of his fellow Republicans have no motherly affection towards cows and cherish their rare medium prime steaks.

The conservatives in US believe in  AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM - We all know this and there is some truth to it. Without certain exceptional qualities and leadership, America wouldn't be where it is today. Even virulently anti Americans grudgingly admit the same. Yet, self glorification takes the mojo out of it. Rubbing of self ego hardly helps, same as this Message - A Self massage doesn't give you the same pleasure, as much as the massage given to you by someone else.

In this message of exceptionalism by the American conservatives, India or Indians hardly fit into the scheme of things. Most Conservative Americans are barely aware of or care about India or Indians. Some of those who have some idea, often mock at the Hindus for not eating the meat of a mere animal called cow. It may not sound music to Trump's fans back home.

Also during his 3 years of Presidency Trump's foreign policy has been whimsical rather than strategic. He has hardly initiated any kind of pro India foreign policy beyond the perfunctory optics of "Howdy Modi". When Modi was gleeing with joy by exposing his phalanx of 24 teeth holding the hands of the American President in Houston, Trump's body language showed that he was clearly uncomfortable.

My dear Right wing supporters in India, for your kind information it was during a Champion American Conservative and Republican President George W Bush's tenure in 2005 your MAHAPRABHU Modi was denied Visa to visit America. It was during Obama administration this ban was revoked and red flag was changed to red carpet. Obama is a Democrat.

One measurement of the importance given towards a country by the President of United States is how many times he visits a nation in his first term. So far, not a single time Trump has cared to visit India, whereas he has already visited many nations in Western Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore - some multiple times. Obama was the only President after Jimmy Carter in 1978 who visited India on their first term. Obama also invited Manmohan Singh for a  ceremonial White House State Dinner, a rare honor to a visiting dignitary. Both Carter and Obama were Democratic Presidents. Republican Presidents irarely extended such hospitality to any visiting Indian Prime Minister, including Trump.

American administration in general, whether Republican or Democrat follow a deeply self oriented foreign policy in a world where there is no permanent friends or enemies. Only permanent interest thrives. So hold on to your horses Trump fans until you see Trump making a strong foreign policy overture to India, a la Nixon to China in 1973.

Your truly

A Reality checker & Well Wisher.

Mess in the Middle East post Suleimani's killing

Middle East, what a mess ? It is getting messier and murkier. Qassem Sueimani, the powerful, legendary Iranian general considered second most powerful person in Iran, was assassinated today when his convoy was attacked by American Airstrike just outside of Baghdad International Airport. US claims that Suleimani was taken out for his alleged involvement in the killing of an American soldier and military contractor in a recent attack in Baghdad. 

But the truth is lot more complicated. Suleimani was not new to dealing with USA. In 2008 during the peak American occupation of Iraq, when questioned about his involvement in a Rocket attack inside Baghdad's heavily fortified Green zone he famously responded, "If the attack is accurate, it is mine". He also assured the Americans that the attack on them in Iraq by the Shia Militias trained by him will be reduced, provided a dreaded captured militia leader Qais Al Khajali captured by Western forces is released.

His power kept growing and extending beyond Iraq, a nation with Shia majority (Arab Shia make 60% of Iraqi population who were oppressed during Saddam Hussein's dictatorship). Suleman was a formidable General, the head of the Iran's dreaded Revolutionary Guard or Qud force. He was the strategic brain behind many spectacular Iranian operations in the Middle East, especially in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. 

His Shia backed Militias were fly on the ointment to the American, Saudi and Israeli interests. He was supposedly the mastermind behind a recent drone attack on Saudi flagship Aramco oil installations. The American Advanced Warning system given to the Saudis failed to apprehend and foil the attack. 

Interestingly, at one point Suleiman was helped by the US when he led the elite Republican Guard or Qud forces fight against ISIS, a Sunni outfit who considers the Shias as heretics. Americans cooperated with the Iranian backed Militias giving them air cover during their fight with ISIS. This yet vindicates at there is no permanent friends or enemies in the shadowy world of foreign policy where only permanent interest thrives, nothing else.

Suleimani was answerable only to the Supreme Commander Khameini of Iran, not their elected President (Iran has some semblance of democracy, a rarity in the Mullah landscape). Clearly the Americans acted on the behest of the Saudis and Israelis who have no love lost for Iran. The charismatic Iranian general was getting too powerful & charismatic to be kept on loose. A shadowy figure, the Americans must have got some timely, accurate intelligence on him which enabled them to carry out their successful operation.

It is interesting to note that by taking out Saddam Hussein the US laid the groundwork for an Iranian general to operate inside Baghdad - the heart of Iraq. Ironically it is also the same Americans who bumped the Iranian  general off. Saddam Hussein hated the Iranians to the core. He famously said - God should not have created 3 things. Sands, Mosquitoes and Persians (Iran), keeping Iran at bay. No sooner Saddam came to power than he attacked Iran. US supported Iraq at that time. 

What's going to happen next? A long year is ahead. The global gas prices are going to go up. India an energy hungry country which imports 80% of its oil need is bound to be impacted. A $10 per barrel increase in crude price is estimated to bring down India's GDP by 0.2 points. 

Diplomatically, India needs to tread very carefully in this murky middle East quagmire and should not get drawn into the swamp. Of late India had been seen siding with US - Saudi - Israel nexus. That's too myopic. It acquiesced to US pressure not to buy oil from Iran. India's recent bonhomie with Saudis has not gone unnoticed to Iran (It's another matter the Saudis are recently showing sympathy to Pakistan on the Kashmir issue). If China, Russia, Japan, South Korea et all have good relationships with Iran, then why not India ! Don't think it is prudent to put all the eggs in one basket.

It took the fallacy of one George Bush to give a golden opportunity to Iran to infiltrate Iraq and expand its sphere of influence. Iranians may be opportunist, but not suicidal. They will wait for the opportune moment to strike American,  Saudi and Israeli (Iran considers the Jewish state as an extension of US) interests. They can launch a Cyber attack, block oil supplies and make some stealthy, retaliatory attacks, but may stop from a full fledged war.

Right Wing governments are known to launch military strikes in an Election year to improve their winning chance. Modi did the same last year. Trump and his lackey Republicans are following the suit. Timing is after all the leitmotif, sine qua non of politics. Trump has begun the New Year well with a bang.